摘要
在全球变暖的背景下,区域尺度水热格局可能发生变化,导致极端气候事件频发。极端降水作为典型的极端气候事件对气候变化较为敏感。为调查淮河流域历史(1961—2022)和未来(2023—2100)极端降水变化特征,该研究利用降水站点历史观测数据、CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)模型模拟和大气环流观测数据,采用极端降水指数量化极端降水特征,通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析和气候倾向率调查极端降水变化趋势,基于小波分析方法分析淮河流域极端降水与大气环流因子的关系。结果表明:①近60 a淮河流域的极端降水普遍呈现增加趋势,其中R95p和R99p的增长趋势较大且分别为0.46、0.43 mm/a;②在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下的2023—2100年,淮河流域不同极端降水指数均呈现增长趋势且增长趋势高于历史,SSP5-8.5情景下增长趋势高于SSP2-4.5情景,在SSP2-4.5情景下的2023—2100年,未来淮河流域极端降水强度、频率与持续时间的变化趋势比历史趋势分别增加了78.3%、63.5%、350%,在SSP5-8.5情景下的2023—2100年,未来淮河流域极端降水强度、频率与持续时间的变化趋势比历史趋势分别增加了158%、130%、450%;③极端降水指数和南方振荡指数(Southern Oscillation Index,SOI)的相关性高于北大西洋振荡(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)。同类的极端降水与大气环流因子之间关系较为相似。该研究可深入理解全球变暖背景下区域尺度极端降水变化,为淮河流域未来洪涝灾害防御提供参考。
Amid global warming,water and heat patterns will experience changes on a regional scale,resulting in frequent occurrence of extreme climate events.As a typical extreme climate event,extreme precipitation is more sensitive to climate change.To investigate the extreme precipitation change characteristics in the Huaihe River Basin in history(1961—2022)and in the future,this paper employs historical observation precipitation data from meteorological stations,CMIP6 model simulations,and atmospheric circulation observation data.Meanwhile,extreme precipitation indices are adopted to quantify extreme precipitation characteristics.It also investigates the change trend of extreme precipitation by Mann-Kendall trend analysis and the climate tendency rate method and analyzes the relationship between extreme precipitation and atmospheric circulation factors based on the wavelet analysis method in the Huaihe River Basin.The results are as follows.①Extreme precipitation has generally shown an increasing trend in the past 60 years in the Huaihe River Basin.The increasing trends of R95p and R99p are relatively large with the value of 0.46 mm/a and 0.43 mm/a respectively.②Different extreme precipitation indices witness an increasing trend more significant than previous records in the history under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2023 to 2100.Under the SSP2-4.5 scenarios from 2023 to 2100,the future change trends of extreme precipitation intensity,frequency,and duration are 78.3%,63.5%,and 350%more than the historical trends in the Huaihe River Basin.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during that time period,the future change trends of extreme precipitation intensity,frequency,and duration are 158%,130%,and 450%more than the historical trends in the Huaihe River Basin.③The correlation between extreme precipitation indices and southern oscillation index(SOI)is higher than that of north Atlantic oscillation(NAO).The relationship between extreme precipitation of the same type and atmospheric circulation factors is relatively similar.This study can provide a deep understanding of extreme precipitation changes on a regional scale in the context of global warming,providing references for flood disaster prevention in the Huaihe River Basin in the future.
作者
郭伟
叶文
朱绪超
吴畏
王露
高华民
张海明
施韶晖
GUO Wei;YE Wen;ZHU Xuchao;WU Wei;WANG Lu;GAO Huamin;ZHANG Haiming;SHI Shaohui(Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Suqian 223800,China;Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;Huaihe River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Bengbu 233001,China;Shandong Xinhui Construction Group Co.,Ltd.,Dongying 257091,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2025年第8期23-34,共12页
Pearl River
基金
江苏省水利科技项目(2022045)
中国科学院青年创新促进会人才专项(2023327)
江苏省优秀青年科学基金(BK20220163)。
关键词
极端降水
CMIP6
小波分析
大气环流因子
淮河流域
extreme precipitation
CMIP6
wavelet analysis
atmospheric circulation factor
Huaihe River Basin
