摘要
基于农业农村现代化的核心内涵与总体要求,以农业现代化与农村现代化为核心,构建省级农业农村现代化三级指标体系,采用熵值法测度2010—2022年中国31个省份的农业农村现代化水平,并利用核密度估计与空间自相关分析考察其时空演化趋势。研究发现:我国农业农村现代化水平呈现逐渐上升的趋势,但整体水平较低且区域差异较为明显,农业农村现代化水平较高的省份主要分布在东部地区,增长率较高的省份主要分布在西部地区;核密度估计曲线整体向右移动,表明农业农村现代化水平总体呈上升趋势,全国与东部地区在部分年份出现两极化现象;各省份农业农村现代化水平具有全局空间集聚特征,大部分省份农业农村现代化水平具有空间自相关性,在东部地区表现为“高-高”集聚,在西部地区表现为“低-低”集聚。
Based on the core connotation and overall requirements of agricultural and rural modernization,this paper constructs a three-level index system of provincial agricultural and rural modernization with agricultural and rural modernization as the core,uses the entropy method to measure the level of agricultural and rural modernization in 31 provinces of China from 2010 to 2022,and uses the kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis to investigate its spatial-temporal evolution trend.The results show that:the agricultural and rural modernization in China is gradually increasing,but the overall level is low and the regional difference is obvious.The provinces with high level of agricultural and rural modernization are mainly distributed in the eastern region,and the provinces with high growth rate are mainly distributed in the western region.The estimated curve of kernel density shifted to the right as a whole,indicating that the modernization of agriculture and rural areas was generally on the rise,and there was polarization between the whole country and the eastern region in some years.The level of agricultural and rural modernization in each province has the characteristics of global spatial agglomeration,and the level of agricultural and rural modernization in most provinces has spatial autocorrelation,which shows“high-high”agglomeration in the eastern region and“low-low”agglomerationin the western region.
作者
杨虹
王月
Yang Hong;Wang Yue
出处
《统计理论与实践》
2025年第6期52-61,共10页
STATISTICAL THEORY AND PRACTICE
基金
云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“数字经济驱动城乡融合发展的作用机制、实现路径与政策研究”(2023Y0529)
云南民族大学硕士研究生科研创新基金项目“云南省数字普惠金融对包容性增长的影响机制与对策研究”(2022SKY042)。
关键词
农业农村现代化
熵值法
核密度估计
空间自相关
莫兰指数
Modernization of Agriculture and Rural Areas
Entropy Method
Kernel Density Estimation
Spatial Autocorrelation
The Moran Index
