摘要
Calculation of the final infection size has become a topic of significant interest in recent years.Despite considerable progress,determining the final infection size in a heterogeneous infectious disease model with nonlinear incidence rate on short-time scales remains a challenging problem.In this paper,we investigate a heterogeneous SEIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate.We establish both the existence and uniqueness of the solution regarding final size,and based on which,we are able to introduce a computational algorithm to calculate the final infection size.Furthermore,we apply our findings to study the early phase of the COVID-19 endemic in New York County and present a numerical simulation to illustrate the practical implications of our approach.
基金
support from the National Science Foundation of China(No.12271401)
the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin,China(No.22JCYBJC00080).
