摘要
科尔沁沙地作为中国土地沙化严重的地区之一,其生境质量直接关系到区域生态环境和生态安全。运用集成价值评估工具模型(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs,InVEST)的生境质量模块对科尔沁沙地1990—2022年生境质量进行评估,并通过动态度模型、Theil-Sen Median趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst指数和地理探测器等,探讨科尔沁沙地生境质量时空演变特征及其影响因素。同时,耦合灰色多目标决策(Grey Multi-Objective Programming,GMOP)与斑块生成土地利用变化(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation,PLUS)模型,开展生态、自然、经济和综合发展情景下科尔沁沙地生境质量预估研究。结果表明:1990—2022年科尔沁沙地生境质量总体呈改善态势,且具备可持续性特征。空间上呈西高东低的分布格局,其中14.73%区域生境质量显著改善。地理探测器结果表明,植被因子是影响科尔沁沙地生境质量变化的主要因素,与地形、气候及人类活动等因子的交互作用对生境质量的空间异质性表现出更强的解释力。预测2035年研究区生境质量继续上升,在4种模拟情景中,生态保护情景下生境质量提升最为显著,低生境质量区域面积逐渐减少,一般等级和高等级生境质量面积有所增长。
As one of the regions in China most severely impacted by land desertification,the habitat quality of the Horqin Sandy Land is closely tied to the regional ecological environment and ecological security.This study used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to assess habitat quality in the Horqin Sandy Land from 1990 to 2022.Methods such as the dynamic degree model,Theil-Sen median trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,Hurst index,and geographic detector were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in habitat quality and its influencing factors.Additionally,the study coupled the Grey Multi-Objective Programming(GMOP)model with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation(PLUS)model to forecast habitat quality under four scenarios:ecological,natural,economic,and comprehensive development.The results show a general improvement in habitat quality from 1990 to 2022,with sustainable characteristics.Spatially,the habitat quality follows a west-high,east-low distribution pattern,with 14.73%of the area showing significant improvements.The geographic detector analysis reveals that vegetation factors are the primary drivers of habitat quality changes,with the interaction of terrain,climate,and human activities providing a strong explanation for spatial heterogeneity.Predictions indicate that by 2035,habitat quality will continue to improve,particularly under the ecological protection scenario,where the greatest enhancement is expected.Areas of low habitat quality will gradually decrease,while medium-and high-quality habitats will expand.
作者
周得龙
王永芳
郭恩亮
红英
马浩文
慕全飞
王妍力
Delong Zhou;Yongfang Wang;Enliang Guo;Ying Hong;Haowen Ma;Quanfei Mu;Yanli Wang(College of Geographical Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China;Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Mongolian Plateau Geography Research,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China;Key Laboratory of Mongolian Plateau's Climate System,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China)
出处
《中国沙漠》
北大核心
2025年第4期211-226,共16页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
国家自然科学基金:项目(42361014,42201374)
一流学科科研专项项目(YLXKZX-NSD-032,YLXKZX-NSD-002)
内蒙古自然科学基金:项目(2024MS04002,2021BS04008)。
