摘要
国际贸易摩擦及冲突使得各国高筑关税壁垒,对跨国供应链体系造成了极大冲击,而关税较低的国家又面临着众多不确定性风险。因此,探究关税和风险对制造商生产决策的影响迫在眉睫。通过讨论分析原产国制造商、进口国零售商和进口国政府在供应链体系中的关系,建立S模型、Z模型和SZ模型,研究发现:直销市场的价格和市场需求量更容易受到关税的影响;制造商越偏好风险,越容易对新兴生产基地进行开发,将供应链进行转移;关税、风险、供应链转移比例及转移部分用于批发的比例均会影响制造商效用;在关税、风险和零售商的潜在市场份额等因素一定时,有效制定供应链转移比例和转移部分用于批发的比例,更有利于制造商获取更大效用。
International trade frictions and conflicts have led countries to raise high tariff barriers,which have had a great impact on cross-border supply chain systems,while countries with lower tariffs face numerous uncertainty risks.Therefore,it is urgent to explore the impact of tariffs and risks on manufacturers’production decisions.This paper discusses and analyzes the relationship between manufacturers in the country of origin,retailers in the importing country,and the government of the importing country in the supply chain system,and establishes the S-model,Z-model,and SZ-model.The study finds that:prices and market demand in the direct sales market are more likely to be affected by tariffs;the more risk a manufacturer prefers,the more likely it is to develop emerging production bases and transfer its supply chain;tariffs,risks,the proportion of supply chain transfers and the proportion of the transferred portion used for wholesaling all affect the manufacturer’s utility;when the factors of tariff,risk and potential market share of retailers are certain,it is more favorable for manufacturers to obtain greater utility by effectively formulating the proportion of supply chain transfer and the proportion of the transferred portion used for wholesaling.
作者
肖强
张精华
郑云健
XIAO Qiang;ZHANG Jinghua;ZHENG Yunjian(School of Economics and Management,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)
出处
《重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第4期35-50,共16页
Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:Social Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52062026)“城市出租车合乘出行供需演化机理与调控策略研究”
甘肃省自然科学基金项目(23JRZA364)“考虑政府补贴的动力电池闭环供应链回收定价策略与回收模式选择研究”
甘肃省教育厅“双一流”重大研究计划(GSSYLXM-04)“立体交通多网耦合协同优化关键理论与技术”
兰州交通大学基础研究拔尖人才培养计划(2022JC56)“甘肃省汽车回收企业逆向物流能力评价及提升路径研究”。
关键词
关税差异
风险偏好
双渠道
供应链转移
转口贸易
tariff difference
risk preference
dual-channel
supply chain transfer
entrepot trade
