摘要
随着人类航天活动日益频繁,失效航天器及残骸再入大气层后时有残存坠落地面,可能引发航天器再入损害事件,并影响到航天器未来技术发展布局。对此,首先分析引起较大社会关注的国外航天器再入损害典型事件及处置方式,介绍再入损害风险预报的主要国际规范与标准,研究再入损害预报方法和国外再入损害分析工具,并展望主要航天大国在航天器主动离轨、辅助离轨、大规模批量再入、可重复使用等技术方向的发展布局以及存在的问题。研究显示,虽然航天器再入损害风险尚难以非常精确地进行预报,但有望随着技术发展从航天器的设计端开始给予适度管控。
With the increasing frequency of human space activities,there are surviving debris of re-entry spacecraft and debris that impact the Earth's surface,causing typical damage cases and affecting the future technological development of spacecraft.Firstly typical re-entry damage cases and disposal methods of foreign spacecraft that have attracted significant social attention are analyzeds.Secondly the main international norms and standards for re-entry casualty risk are introduced.Then those assessment methods of re-entry casualty risk are studied together with re-entry risk analysis tools of NASA and ESA.Finally it's looked forward to the furture development and existing problems of major space powers in the technical directions of active deorbit,assisted deorbit,large-scale reentry,and reusable spacecraft.Research shows that although the re-entry casualty risk of spacecraft and debris is still difficult to predicte very accurately,it is expected to be moderately controlled by the design of risk-reduction measures along with technological development.
作者
李洪波
李宇飞
胡超
席福彪
LI Hongbo;LI Yufei;HU Chao;XI Fubiao(China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing,100076)
关键词
再入损害风险
主动离轨
辅助离轨
自然再入
再入损害风险评估
re-entry casualty risk
active deorbit
assisted deorbit
natural re-entry
re-entry casualty risk assessment
