摘要
依据收集的1959—2022年和田地区4条河流的出山径流量,4个气象站的气温、降水量以及和田探空站的高空规定层温度等要素的月数据,分析了中昆仑山北坡地表水资源量变化趋势与突变特征,基于丰水期地表水资源量与基本气象要素的相关关系,建立了以山区降水量和高空温度为自变量的地表水资源量变化响应模型,讨论了不同气候背景下中昆仑山北坡地表水资源量对区域气候要素变化的定量响应关系。结果表明:1959—2022年,中昆仑山北坡4条河流的年度和丰水期地表水资源量分别以0.572×10^(8)m^(3)⋅(10a)-1和0.375×10^(8)m^(3)⋅(10a)-1的线性趋势增加,分别在2009年和2010年发生由少到多的突变;中昆仑山北坡丰水期水资源量与同期400 hPa温度的相关性最强,与山区降水量的相关性也通过了显著性水平检验。基于山区降水量和400 hPa温度因子建立地表水资源量多元线性响应模型,对比不同方案下的模型结果显示:1959—2022年,山区降水量每增加(减少)10 mm,丰水期水资源量会增加(减少)0.379×10^(8)m^(3),400 hPa温度每上升(下降)1.0℃,丰水期水资源量将增加(减少)10.57×10^(8)m^(3);1991—2022年,降水量每增加(减少)10 mm,丰水期水资源增加(减少)0.921×10^(8)m^(3),400 hPa温度每上升(下降)1.0℃,丰水期水资源增加(减少)11.2×10^(8)m^(3)。1991年以来,中昆仑山北坡地表水资源量对400 hPa温度与山区降水量的变化响应更为敏感,山区降水量变化对地表水资源量的贡献比率逐年提高。
Based on the collected monthly data from 1959 to 2022,including runoff at the mountain outlets of four rivers in the Hotan region,temperature and precipitation from four meteorological stations,and the standard high-altitude temperatures from the Hotan radiosonde station,this study analyzed the trends and abrupt change characteristics in surface water resources on the northern slope of the central Kunlun Mountains.A univariate re⁃gression model for the time series was established using the least squares method,with the regression coefficient used to analyze the linear trend of the series.The Mann-Kendall(M-K)test and standardized cumulative anoma⁃ly method were employed to identify the years with abrupt changes in the time series.The Pearson correlation co⁃efficient was used to examine the relationship between surface water resources during the flood season and basic meteorological factors,and to test their significance.A response model for surface water resource changes was established based on a multiple regression model to account for variations in multiple factors.Furthermore,the quantitative response of surface water resources on the northern slope of the central Kunlun Mountains to chang⁃es in regional climatic factors under different climate backgrounds was discussed.The results showed that from 1959 to 2022,annual surface water resources on the northern slope of the central Kunlun Mountains exhibited 10 years of abnormally high and 10 years of abnormally low values,while the surface water resources during the flood season had 11 years of abnormally high and 11 years of abnormally low values.The annual and flood-sea⁃son water resources of the four rivers on the northern slope of the central Kunlun Mountains increased at rates of 0.572×10^(8)m^(3)·(10a)-1 and 0.375×10^(8)m^(3)·(10a)-1,respectively,both of which passed the 95%significance test.The M-K test indicated that a sudden increase was observed in the annual and flood-season water resources in 2009 and 2010,respectively,with mean values increasing by 28.2%and 21.4%compared to the period before the abrupt changes.Over the past 64 years,the annual average temperature at the four stations on the northern slope of the central Kunlun Mountains in Hotan increased at a rate of 0.319°C·(10a)-1,and the precipitation in⁃creased at a rate of 4.83 mm·(10a)-1.The annual and flood-season precipitation in the mountainous areas were 128.7 mm and 110.4 mm,increasing at rates of 10.6 mm·(10a)-1 and 10.5 mm·(10a)-1,respectively.The warming rates of the upper-air levels from 700 to 400 hPa for the annual and flood seasons were 0.144°C·(10a)-1 and 0.096°C·(10a)-1,respectively.Across the 700 hPa,500 hPa,and 400 hPa levels,the warming rate in⁃creased with altitude,with the 400 hPa level showing warming rates of 0.186°C·(10a)-1 and 0.180°C·(10a)-1 for the annual and flood seasons,respectively.The surface water resources during the flood season on the north⁃ern slope of the central Kunlun Mountains exhibited the strongest correlation with the simultaneous 400 hPa tem⁃perature,and the correlation with mountain precipitation also passed the significance test.A multivariate linear response model for surface water resources was established based on mountain precipitation and 400 hPa tempera⁃ture.A comparison of model results under different scenarios showed that from 1959 to 2022,for every 10 mm increase(decrease)in mountain precipitation,the surface water resources during the flood season would in⁃crease(decrease)by 0.379×108 m³.For every 1.0°C increase(decrease)in 400 hPa temperature,the surface water resources during the flood season would increase(decrease)by 10.57×108 m³.From 1991 to 2022,for ev⁃ery 10 mm increase(decrease)in precipitation,the surface water resources during the flood season would in⁃crease(decrease)by 0.921×108 m³.For every 1.0°C increase(decrease)in 400 hPa temperature,the surface water resources during the flood season would increase(decrease)by 11.2×108 m³.Since 1991,the surface wa⁃ter resources on the northern slope of the central Kunlun Mountains have become more sensitive to changes in 400 hPa temperature and mountain precipitation,with the contribution of precipitation variability to surface wa⁃ter resources increasing year by year.
作者
古力米热·玉苏甫
毛炜峄
谢欣芮
邓亚丽
Gulimire Yusufu;MAO Weiyi;XIE Xinrui;DENG Yali(Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Hotan Prefecture Meteorological Bureau,Hotan 848000,Xinjiang,China)
出处
《冰川冻土》
2025年第4期1061-1074,共14页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发专项“高寒山区致洪雨雪冰事件源头风险识别与动态监测预报”(2022B03021-1)资助。
关键词
地表水资源量
高空温度
山区降水量
变化响应
中昆仑山北坡
surface water resources
upper-air temperature
mountain precipitation
variation response
north⁃ern slope of central Kunlun Mountains
