摘要
北极涡旋特性变化及其对中高纬度降雪,尤其是极端降雪的影响,对于揭示极端天气或气候事件具有重要意义。本文采用中国科学院大气物理研究所发布的气候系统指数数据集及气象台站观测数据,采用趋势分析、相关分析等统计学方法,分析了1961—2021年极涡面积、强度等变化特征,以及1961—2021年松花江流域降雪量和日数的变化特征,揭示了极涡指数与松花江流域降雪的相关关系。结果表明:1961—2021年极涡特性发生了显著变化,具体为极涡面积显著缩小,极涡强度显著增强,极涡中心强度显著减弱,其变化速率分别为-0.807·(10a)^(-1)、-33.291·(10a)^(-1)、5.576·(10a)^(-1),而极涡中心位置没有显著变化。1961—2021年松花江流域除年降雪量、小雪量无显著变化外,年降雪日数及其他各等级降雪量和日数均发生了显著变化,其中,年降雪日数和小雪日数显著减少,中雪以上量和日数均显著增加。除小雪量与极涡无显著相关关系外,极涡中心强度、极涡强度和面积变化与松花江流域降雪指标有显著的相关关系。极涡中心强度变弱和极涡强度增强是松花江流域降雪量及中雪以上降雪量和日数增加的主要影响因素。
Variations in the characteristics of Arctic vortex and their impact on snowfall in mid-to high lati⁃tudes,especially extreme snowfall events,are of great significance for understanding extreme weather or climate events.This study used the climate system index dataset released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chi⁃nese Academy of Sciences,along with meteorological station observation data.Statistical methods such as trend analysis and correlation analysis were employed to analyze the variation characteristics of the polar vortex area and intensity,as well as the variation characteristics of snowfall amounts and days in the Songhua River Basin(SRB)from 1961 to 2021,thereby revealing the correlation between polar vortex indices and snowfall in the SRB.The results showed that:(1)The polar vortex characteristics changed significantly from 1961 to 2021.Specifically,the polar vortex area reduced remarkably,polar vortex intensity enhanced markedly,and polar vor⁃tex central intensity weakened considerably,at rates of-0.807·(10a)^(-1),-33.291·(10a)^(-1),and 5.576·(10a)^(-1),respectively,while the polar vortex center location showed no significant change.(2)From 1961 to 2021,al⁃though the annual snowfall amounts and light snowfall amounts showed no significant trends,substantial chang⁃es were observed in annual snowfall days and snowfall amounts/days at various intensity levels across the SRB.Among them,annual snowfall days and light snowfall days decreased significantly,while the amounts and days of moderate/heavy snowfall increased significantly.(3)Except for light snowfall amounts,which had no signifi⁃cant correlation with the polar vortex,variations in polar vortex central intensity,polar vortex intensity,and po⁃lar vortex area all showed significant correlations with snowfall indicators in the SRB.The weakening of the po⁃lar vortex central intensity and the strengthening of the polar vortex are the main influencing factors leading to the increases in total snowfall,as well as the amounts and days of moderate/heavy snowfall in the SRB.
作者
樊荣
高玲
张丽娟
赵余峰
王嘉欣
黄玉桃
董思言
FAN Rong;GAO Ling;ZHANG Lijuan;ZHAO Yufeng;WANG Jiaxin;HUANG Yutao;DONG Siyan(Key Laboratory of Cold District Monitoring and Information Service,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China;Heilongjiang Climate Center,Harbin 150030,China;State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management,National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《冰川冻土》
2025年第4期927-939,共13页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J044)
国家自然科学基金项目(42271136)资助。
关键词
北极涡旋
降雪特征
相关关系
松花江流域
Arctic vortex
snowfall characteristics
correlation
Songhua River Basin
