摘要
装备体系组成及耦合关系复杂、运用场景及战术战法多样,在不同场景下表现出的体系能力具有不确定性,为装备体系性能的摸边探底带来挑战。聚焦认知装备体系性能或效能的不确定性,在数字化试验的背景下,研究数字试验的开展策略,提出装备体系不确定性的结构化分析及量化评估方法。设计“使命-作战场景-作战任务-不确定性参数”质量屋用于分解不确定性,基于代理模型及敏感性分析方法等寻找关键影响因素,构建贝叶斯响应函数模型与策略泛函进行性能不确定性的逐级映射,分层次规范表征不确定性量化的试验需求,提高试验效益,在同等试验代价下缩减指标评估的不确定性。以导弹突防策略评估为例,验证面向不确定性的质量屋结构化分析与策略泛函评估的有效性,从而节约试验资源。
The composition and coupling relationship of the equipment System-of-Systems(SoS)are complex,and the application scenarios and tactics are diverse.The SoS capabilities manifested in different scenarios are uncertain,which poses challenges to the exploration of the performance limits of the SoS.To address uncertainty in understanding SoS performance or effectiveness,this study investigates strategies for digital testing and proposes a structured analysis and quantitative assessment methodology for SoS uncertainty.A“Mission-Combat Scenario-Combat Task-Uncertainty Parameter”House of Quality(HoQ)is designed to decompose uncertainty;critical influencing factors are identified using surrogate models and sensitivity analysis;hierarchical mapping of performance uncertainty is achieved via Bayesian response function models and strategy functionals;testing requirements for uncertainty quantification are formally characterized across hierarchical levels,enhancing testing efficiency and reducing metric evaluation uncertainty under equivalent testing costs.Using missile penetration strategy evaluation as a case study,the effectiveness of the HoQ-based structured uncertainty analysis and strategy functional assessment is validated,significantly conserving testing resources.
作者
段晓君
王柄霖
荣琦
谈文慧
晏良
DUAN Xiaojun;WANG Binglin;RONG Qi;TAN Wenhui;YAN Liang(College of Science,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410072,China;College of Computer Science and Technology,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China)
出处
《国防科技》
2025年第4期55-65,共11页
National Defense Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金委员会/中国工程物理研究院“NSAF”联合基金项目(U2230208)
国家自然科学基金项目(12301325、12401328)。
关键词
体系试验
不确定性
结构化分析
质量屋
导弹突防
System-of-Systems testing
uncertainty
structured analysis
House of Quality
missile penetration
