摘要
为度量不同地形郊区的防洪韧性水平,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型,运用主客观组合赋权法及空间自相关分析法,构建郊区防洪韧性时空动态评价模型,以北京市为例对模型进行实例应用。结果表明:北京市郊区防洪韧性呈现显著区域差异,综合韧性、状态韧性和响应韧性整体上升,压力韧性因气候变化呈下降趋势;空间集聚上全局呈随机分布,局部存在“高-高”与“低-高”集聚类型,协同性较弱。该模型可有效分析郊区防洪韧性的时空演变特征,为郊区防洪薄弱环节识别与韧性提升提供科学依据。
In order to measure the level of flood resilience in suburban areas with different topography,a spatio-temporal dynamic evaluation model of suburban flood resilience is constructed based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model using the subjective-objective combination of the weighting method and the spatial autocorrelation analysis method,and the model is applied in Beijing as an example.The results show that:the flood resilience in suburban areas of Beijing presents significant regional differences,with the overall increase of comprehensive resilience,state resilience and response resilience,and the downward trend of pressure resilience due to climate change;the spatial agglomeration distribution is random globally,and there are local high-high and low-high agglomeration types,with weak synergistic properties.The model can effectively assess the spatial and temporal characteristics of suburban flood resilience,and provide scientific basis for the identification of weak links and resilience enhancement of suburban flood control.
作者
吴晓琳
郭小东
朱孟华
WU Xiaolin;GUO Xiaodong;ZHU Menghua(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《安全》
2025年第8期14-20,共7页
Safety & Security
基金
住房和城乡建设部2022年度科学技术计划项目(2022-K-033)。
关键词
郊区
洪涝
时空
韧性评估
suburbs
flooding
spatio-temporal
resilience assessment
