摘要
近期,日本加速构建海域态势感知体系,推动该体系发展向进攻型转变。一方面,对内持续提升海域态势感知能力,完善信息共享系统及相关设施建设,策应“能战”目标将该体系列为“反击能力”的重要一环;另一方面,对外深化同美西方阵营的技术交流与合作,畅通情报共享机制,并向“印太”地区国家提供技术与装备支持,协助提升区域整体海域监控能力,试图构筑对华包围。其动因源自日本对“周边威胁”错误认知加深、配合美西方“印太”战略行动以及“军事大国化”野心的膨胀。今后,日本政府或将寻求新技术领域的规则主导权,加深对海洋议题的泛安全化理解以及引导对华“威胁”共识,这将冲击区域安全架构,对中国海洋安全构成严峻挑战。然而,受财力支援分散、系统运行蕴藏潜在风险、技术和信息对外高度依赖以及美国和东盟战略选择不确定性等因素制约,日本海域态势感知体系的发展及其出海计划成效或较为有限。
Recently,Japan has accelerated the construction of its Maritime Domain Awareness(MDA)system,promoting a shift in the system's development toward an offensive orientation.Domestically,Japan continues to enhance its maritime domain awareness capabilities,improve information-sharing systems and related infrastructure,and align these efforts with its"readiness for combat"objectives by integrating the MDA system as a key component of its counterstrike capability.Externally,Japan deepens technological exchanges and cooperation with the United States and Western allies,streamlines intelligence-sharing mechanisms,and provides technical and equipment support to"Indo-Pacific"countries,aiming to assist in enhancing regional maritime surveillance capabilities.Through these actions,Japan seeks to form a containment strategy against China.This move stems from Japan's deepening misperception of "regional threats,"its alignment with US-led"Indo-Pacific"strategies,and its growing ambitions to become a major military power.In the future,the Japanese government may seek to dominate rule-making in emerging technological fields,further securitize ocean-related issues,and promote a shared perception of China as a"threat,"thereby undermining the regional security architecture and posing a serious challenge to China's maritime security.However,constrained by fragmented financial support,potential operational risks within the system,high external dependence on technology and information,and uncertainties regarding strategic choices by the United States and ASEAN countries,the effectiveness of Japan's maritime domain awareness system and its overseas expansion plans may be significantly limited.
基金
国家社会科学基金中国历史研究院重大历史问题研究专项重大招标项目“大国兴衰的历史逻辑、规律与国际秩序演进研究”(22VLS015)的阶段性成果。
关键词
海域态势感知
海洋情报“印太”地区
日本外交
maritime situational awareness
maritime intelligence
"Indo-Pacific"region
Japanese diplomacy
