摘要
为有效评估铁路货场包件区装卸作业安全风险,提出基于贝叶斯网络的风险评估方法。根据铁路货场包件区作业安全防护现状,在解析包件区棚车作业流程的基础上,总结出货物在铁路货场装车承运和卸车交付2大环节共6个风险场景的26个风险项点,建立风险评估指标体系。通过梳理指标之间的因果联系和规律性,构建贝叶斯网络结构,计算根节点和中间节点的概率,对风险评估模型进行双向推理,获得叶节点发生概率与根节点的后验概率,逆向推理出关键的风险影响因素。通过实例仿真,得出某铁路货场包件区作业安全总体风险概率为5.12%,可能导致事故发生的关键风险要素为装车员疲劳驾驶、载具维护不当、货物装车撒漏等,为主动防范化解铁路货场包件区装卸作业安全风险提供参考。
To effectively assess the safety risks of loading and unloading operations in railway freight yard package areas,a risk assessment method based on Bayesian networks was proposed.Based on the current safety protection status in the package areas of railway freight yards and the analysis of the shed car operation process,26 risk items across 6 risk scenarios were summarized from the loading and unloading of goods in the railway freight yard.A safety risk assessment indicator system was established.By sorting out the causal relationships and regularities among indicators,a Bayesian network structure was constructed.The probabilities of root nodes and intermediate nodes were calculated.Bidirectional inference was performed on the risk assessment model,yielding the occurrence probabilities of leaf nodes and the posterior probabilities of root nodes and enabling reverse inference of key risk influencing factors.Through an example simulation,the overall risk probability of loading and unloading operations in a railway freight yard package area was determined to be 5.12%.Key risk factors that may lead to accidents included fatigue driving of loaders,improper maintenance of loading equipment,and cargo spillage during loading.The method provides a reference for actively preventing and resolving safety risks in the loading and unloading operations in the railway freight yard package areas.
作者
宁健
黄宝静
NING Jian;HUANG Baojing(Transportation&Economics Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《铁路物流》
2025年第8期54-61,共8页
Railway Logisitics
基金
中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划课题(RD2024Y007)
中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2024YJ233)
陕西省重点研发计划项目(2024GX-YBXM-536)。
关键词
铁路货场
装卸作业安全
风险评估
贝叶斯网络
仿真分析
Railway Freight Yard
Loading and Unloading Operation Safety
Risk Assessment
Bayesian Network
Simulation Analysis
