摘要
对“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险水平进行客观公正和科学合理的综合评价,可以帮助投资者对相关国家的投资提供决策依据。因此,构建一个由4个方面、20个指标构成的指标体系。根据60个“一带一路”沿线国家2016-2020年的指标数据,将决策者偏好(专家意见和已有研究成果)添加到约束条件中,建立“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险水平综合评价的改进型投影寻踪模型,对“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险水平、各评价指标的重要性等进行排序和分类研究。建模结果表明:新加坡的投资风险最低,其次是奥地利,而叙利亚和也门始终排名最后;在20个评价指标中,话语权和问责与腐败控制最重要,其次是法治程度和人均GDP增速等6个指标。最后,根据指标权重大小,对投资者进行海外投资提出了有效的措施和建议。基于决策者偏好的投影寻踪技术为“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险水平综合评价相关研究提供了参考和借鉴。
An objective,fair,scientific,and rational comprehensive evaluation of investment risk levels in countries along the"Belt and Road"can provide investors with a decision-making basis for investing in these countries.This paper constructs an index system consisting of 4 aspects and 20 indicators.Based on indicator data from 60 countries along the"Belt and Road"from 2016 to 2020,decision-maker preferences(expert opinions and existing research results)are incorporated into the constraints,establishing an improved projection pursuit model for comprehensive evaluation of investment risk levels in countries along the"Belt and Road".This model is used to rank and categorize investment risk levels and the importance of various evaluation indicators in countries along the"Belt and Road".Modeling results indicate that Singapore has the lowest investment risk,followed by Austria,while Syria and Yemen consistently rank at the bottom two positions.Among the 20 evaluation indicators,discourse power and accountability,as well as corruption control,are the most important,followed by six indicators such as the degree of rule of law and GDP per capita growth rate.Based on the weight of these indicators,effective measures and suggestions are proposed for investors considering overseas investments.The projection pursuit technique based on decision-maker preferences provides valuable reference for relevant research on comprehensive evaluation of investment risk levels in countries along the"the Belt and Road".
作者
朴圣源
PIAO Shengyuan(School of Optical-Electrical and Computer Engineering,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)
出处
《软件导刊》
2025年第8期121-127,共7页
Software Guide
关键词
一带一路
投资风险水平评价
投影寻踪
决策者偏好
The"Belt and Road"
investment risk level evaluation
projection pursuit
decision maker preferences
