摘要
【目的】探讨新质生产力是否以及如何促进粮食生产安全,为保障国家粮食安全战略提供政策参考。【方法】基于2013—2022年中国30个省的面板数据,考察新质生产力对粮食生产安全的影响效应与作用机制。【结果】新质生产力的发展对粮食生产安全具有显著的正向影响作用,且该结论在进行稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明,新质生产力对粮食生产安全的促进作用,中西部地区>东部地区,粮食安全高水平地区>低水平地区,新质生产力高水平地区>低水平地区。影响机制分析表明,农业产业结构调整和农户增收在新质生产力促进粮食生产安全中具有中介效应。门槛检验结果表明,新质生产力对粮食生产安全的促进作用受到农地经营规模单一门槛影响,且促进作用在跨越门槛值后边际递减。【结论】强化对粮食新质生产力的政策支持,因地制宜推动新质生产力发展,强化农业产业结构调整和农户增收的中介传导作用。
【Objective】Exploring whether and how new quality productive forces can promote grain pro‐duction security and providing policy recommendations for safeguarding national grain security strategies.【Method】Exploring whether and how new quality productive forces can promote grain production security and providing policy recommendations for safeguarding national grain security strategies.【Result】The development of new quality productive forces has a statistically significant positive effect on grain produc‐tion security,and this conclusion remains valid after conducting robustness tests.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive impact of new quality productive forces on grain production security is stronger in the central and western regions compared to the eastern region,more pronounced areas with high levels of grain security than in those with low levels,and greater where the development of new quality produc‐tive forces is advanced compared to areas with low levels.Analysis of the mechanisms reveals that adjust‐ments in agricultural industrial structure and increases in farmers'incomes serve as mediating factors in the enhancement of grain production security.Additionally,these adjustments and increases also promote grain production security through the development of new,high-quality productive forces.The threshold test results show that the positive effect of new quality productive forces on grain production security is in‐fluenced by a single threshold rlated to the scale of farmland management.Beyond this threshold value,the effect diminishes marginally.【Conclusion】It is essential to strengthen policy support for new quality productive forces in grain production,promote the development of new quality productive forces accord‐ing to local conditions,and enhance the intermediary roles of agricultural industrial structure adjust‐ments and increases in farmers'income.
作者
刘威
王璐
LIU Wei;WANG Lu(College of Management,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,China)
出处
《四川农业大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第4期857-865,共9页
Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University
基金
国家社会科学基金(21BJY060)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(19YJC790085)
河南省高校人文社科重点研究基地物流研究中心资助项目(2020-JD-04)。
关键词
新质生产力
粮食安全
农业产业结构
农户增收
new quality productive forces
grain production security
agricultural industrial structure
farmers'income increase
