摘要
为探明合肥市水面蒸发量的变化特征,识别蒸发量变化的驱动因素,基于董铺站1980~2019年E-601/E-601B型蒸发器的蒸发量,以及对应的逐日最高/最低/平均气温、相对湿度、2 m处平均风速、太阳辐射和气溶胶厚度(AOD)等气象资料,采用彭曼公式计算水汽压力差,根据蒸发器材质于1992年更换,将1980~1991、1992~2019年分别记为阶段Ⅰ、Ⅱ,通过气候倾向率和多元回归分析法计算每个阶段的年、汛期和非汛期尺度上各影响因子对蒸发量变化的贡献率。结果表明,年、汛期、非汛期蒸发量在阶段Ⅰ的均值分别为842.1、400.2、441.9 mm,在阶段Ⅱ的均值分别为636.6、319.8、343.8 mm,标准差分别为67.9、48.8、27.2mm,阶段Ⅱ上各时间尺度的蒸发量均值皆小于阶段Ⅰ;除阶段Ⅰ汛期蒸发量呈上下波动变化外,其他时间尺度蒸发量和阶段Ⅱ上各时间尺度蒸发量均呈显著下降趋势;阶段Ⅰ,年蒸发量的变化受太阳辐射的影响最大,贡献率为71.3%;汛期蒸发量无显著变化趋势;非汛期蒸发量的变化受太阳辐射最大,贡献率为57.8%。阶段Ⅱ,年蒸发量变化受AOD影响最大,贡献率为48.7%;汛期蒸发量变化受风速影响最大,贡献率为51.0%;非汛期蒸发量变化主要受气温、风速和AOD的影响,贡献率分别为-98.0%、79.3%、76.7%。研究可为气候变化下水文循环特征的认识和驱动机制的揭示提供数据支撑。
To investigate the variation characteristics of water surface evaporation in Hefei City and identify the driv-ing factors behind these changes,this study utilized evaporation data by the E-601/E-601B evaporator at Dongpu Station from 1980 to 2019.Additionally,the corresponding meteorological variables including daily maximum/minimum/average temperature,relative humidity,average wind speed at 2 m,solar radiation,and aerosol optical depth(AOD)were incor-porated.The Penman formula was used to calculate the water vapor pressure difference.Given the material replacement of the evaporator in 1992,the periods from 1980 to 1991 and from 1992 to 2019 were designated as stageⅠand stageⅡ,respectively.By employing the climate tendency rate and multiple regression analysis methods,the contribution rates of each influencing factor to evaporation changes were quantified at annual,flood season,and non-flood season scales.The results indicate that in the stageⅠ,the mean annual,flood season,and non-flood season evaporation values were 842.1 mm,400.2 mm,and 441.9 mm,respectively.While in the stageⅡ,they were 636.6 mm,319.8 mm,and 343.8 mm,with standard deviations of 67.9 mm,48.8 mm,and 27.2 mm,respectively.At all time scales,the mean evaporation values in the stageⅡwere consistently lower than those in the stageⅠ.Notably,except for the upward and downward fluctuations observed in flood season evaporation at the stageⅠ,a significant downward trend was evident for evaporation at other time scales and throughout stageⅡ.In the stageⅠ,annual evaporation changes were predominantly influenced by solar radiation,contributing 71.3%;No significant trend was observed for flood season evaporation,whereas non-flood season evaporation changes were primarily driven by solar radiation,accounting for 57.8%.However,in the stageⅡ,the AOD became the dominant factor affecting annual evaporation changes,contributing 48.7%;Wind speed was the most influential factor for flood season evaporation changes,contributing 51.0%;Non-flood season evaporation changes were mainly governed by temperature,wind speed,and AOD,with respective contribution rates of-98.0%,79.3%,and 76.7%.This research provides data support for understanding hydrological cycle characteristics and elucidating the driving mechanisms under climate change scenarios.
作者
詹柏洋
周玉良
周平
张宇亮
沈捷
金菊良
ZHAN Bai-yang;ZHOU Yu-liang;ZHOU Ping;ZHANG Yu-liang;SHEN Jie;JIN Ju-liang(College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Hefei,Hefei 230031,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2025年第8期6-10,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3206604-02)
国家自然科学基金项目(42271084,52379006,52209011)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2308085US13,2208085QE179)。
关键词
水面蒸发量
变化特征
影响因子识别
多元回归法
合肥市
water surface evaporation
change characteristics
influencing factor identification
multiple regression analysis
Hefei City
