摘要
应急预案演练有实地演练和桌面演练两种基本方式,共同支撑起了第一代预案演练场景构建。实地演练属于实战演练,现实感强,但场景布设有限;桌面演练带有虚拟演练属性,具有场景设计灵活的优点,但缺乏实战感。这种现象被称为“预案演练困境”。基于传统信息技术生成的数字化预案推演作为第二代预案演练场景也未能满足既可灵活设计又保证强现实感的演练需求。新兴数字技术集成的复杂数字孪生体支撑着第三代虚实融合演练场景。随着数字技术迭代升级,复杂数字孪生体伺服预案演练的场景要素结构化能力不断增强,虚拟演练与实地场景相互赋能、持续交互、有机融合,共同推动预案演练提质增效,不断地提高预案演练水平。
There have been two basic approaches to emergency plans:tabletop exercises and field exercises.They support the first-generation of planning exercise scenario together.Tabletop exercises carry the attributes of virtual exercises,which have the advantage of more scenario design,but lack a sense of real-world;Field exercises are practical exercises with a strong sense of reality,but with limited scenario deployment.As the second-generation scenario,the digital planning exercise based on traditional information technology also fails to meet the demand.The complex digital twins is driving the iteration of planning exercise scenarios into the third-generation virtual-reality fusion scenarios.With the iteration and upgrading of the digital twins technology,the ability of the complex digital twins service emergency planning exercise scenario element structuring continues to grow.The mutual empowerment and continuous interaction of virtual exercises and field scenarios,working together to promote the iterative updating of the planning exercise,continuously improve the level of planning exercise.
作者
李瑞昌
王勇
Ruichang Li;Yong Wang
出处
《复旦公共行政评论》
2024年第2期96-116,共21页
Fudan Public Administration Review
关键词
应急预案
预案
演练
场景迭代
复杂数字孪生体
虚实融合
emergency plans
emergency planning exercise
scenario evolution
complex digital twins
virtual-real fusion
