摘要
在全球能源结构转型加速的背景下,天然气作为低碳清洁能源的战略地位日益凸显。然而,随着勘探开发向深层和非常规领域延伸,天然气生产企业的成本压力不断增大。完全成本作为衡量企业经济效益的核心指标,其预测精度直接影响投资决策优化、市场价格机制形成以及国家能源安全保障。为了解决传统成本预测方法依赖复杂财务模型,难以适应快速决策需求的问题,构建了天然气完全成本快速预测模型,提出了新、老气井二元成本结构理论,并通过产量权重耦合算法实现存量井与新投产井成本特征的动态平衡。研究结果表明:①天然气完全成本由操作成本、折耗、折旧与摊销、期间费用和所得税以外的税费构成,新投产井的完全成本在投产时基本确定,并在未来数年保持相对稳定状态;②二元成本结构理论能够有效耦合新投产井与存量井的成本特征,快速预测企业未来完全成本走势,提高完全成本的短期预测精度和长期趋势研判能力;③企业应依靠技术进步降低新投产井的单井投资、提高新投产井的单井产量,通过降低新井的完全成本来实现企业完全成本的管控。结论认为,优化后的天然气完全成本预测方法对于企业应对气价波动和政策调整具有重要意义,借助模型的预测结果能够有计划地优选投资方向,从而有效管控企业的完全成本,推动企业的健康可持续发展。
Natural gas,as a sort of low-carbon and clean energy resources,reveals an increasingly strategic role with the accelerating transformation of energy structure in the world.However,its producers are obliged to invest more constantly as exploration and development extend to deep-seated or unconventional gas.For full cost,as a core indicator for predicting economic benefits in such enterprises,its accuracy may directly affect the invest-ment decision,market pricing,and national energy security.Thus,an innovative model was developed to fast predict the full cost in natural gas be-cause traditional approaches based on complex financial models are difficult to make rapid decision.Furthermore,a theory on dual cost structure of new and old gas wells was proposed to achieve dynamic balance in cost behaviors between existing and new production wells through an algorithm of production weight coupling.Results show that(i)full cost consists of operating cost,depletion,depreciation and amortization,period expenses,as well as taxes and fees in addition to income tax.For those wells newly put into production,their full cost is basically confirmed at the time of commission-ing and remains relatively stable in the coming years;(ii)coupled with cost behaviors of both new and existing wells,the dual cost structure theory can help in quick prediction on the full cost trend,further to improve short-term prediction accuracy and judge long-term tend;and(iii)relying on technological advancement,gas producers may reduce single-well investment and increase individual output in new production wells so as to control their full cost.In conclusion,the optimized prediction model is of great significance for these producers to confront with price fluctuation and policy adjustment.Prediction results from this model can be used to choose better investment direction in a planned way for cost control with effect and pro-mote enterprises'healthy and sustainable development.
作者
罗旻海
王建江
尹涛
张悦
陆洪江
雷婧
罗寿兵
LUO Minhai;WANG Jianjiang;YIN Tao;ZHANG Yue;LU Hongjiang;LEI Jing;LUO Shoubing(Natural Gas Economic Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Directional Drilling Technology Services Company,CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830000,China;Cost Estimation Cen-ter,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Science&Technology Information Department,PetroChi-na Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China)
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2025年第4期72-76,共5页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
基金
中国石油西南油气田公司科学研究与技术开发项目“西南油气田公司“三大计划”融合管理价值提升及路径研究”(编号:2024D110-01-02)。
关键词
天然气
完全成本
快速预测模型
影响因素
短期预测精度
投资管控
Natural gas
Full cost
Fast prediction model
Influencing factor
Short-term prediction accuracy
Investment control
