摘要
Lake ice phenology is a critical climate change indicator,impacting the energy exchange between lakes and the atmosphere,as well as hydrological and ecological processes in lakes.As a climate-sensitive region,lake ice phenology on the Mongolian Plateau has been rarely studied.MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)daily snow products from 2000 to 2023 are used to investigate the ice phenology change of 61 lakes on the Mongolian Plateau in this study,influencing factors are explored,and data from CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)models are used to predict its future spatiotemporal changes under the different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.The results indicate that the overall cloud cover of MODIS data in lake areas decreased to 13.77%after cloud removal by dual-satellite and nearest date combination,and the lake ice phenology extracted from MODIS data shows good consistency with AMSR-E/2 products.From2000 to 2023,most lakes on the Mongolian Plateau showed later freezeup dates,earlier breakup dates,and shorter ice cover durations.Lake attributes are primarily related to the freezing process of lake ice,while climate factors affect both freezing and thawing processes,with a greater impact on the breakup date.Predictions based on the random forest model suggest that,relative to 2022–2023,whichever scenario(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585),the average freezeup date will be delayed,the average breakup date will be advanced,and the ice cover duration will be shortened.As radiative forcing increases,differences in lake ice phenology across different stages become more pronounced.These findings have great significance for adaptation to climate change and the reasonable utilization of water resources on the Mongolian Plateau.
基金
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42201135,42011530120)
International Cooperation Project of Science and Technology Plan of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BZ2024032)。
