摘要
航天型号现行风险评估方法采用依赖专家经验的定性分析方法,具有较大的主观性、模糊性,存在风险影响分析过程的逻辑性不足,风险评估参数体系与研究对象参数体系脱节等问题。针对这些问题,提出了基于特征参数的风险评估方法,形成了统一风险评估方法并统一参数体系。一是以量化分析替代定性分析,以特征参数的机理逐层分析替代传统的直接严酷度分级分析;二是建立风险评估参数体系与研究对象参数体系关系模型,以机理模型为核心,建立从研究对象特征参数到风险评估参数的逻辑关系。通过运载火箭一子级落区风险分析实证,不仅对风险总体评价量化,还对落区各个人口聚居点的具体风险进行定量评估,为落区的人口转移等风险控制提供具体的参考建议。该方法有效解决了现行风险评估方法中存在的问题,提高了风险评估的科学性和实用性,为航天型号的风险管理提供了有力支持。
The current risk assessment methods for aerospace models rely on qualitative analysis based on expert experience,which presents several issues:high subjectivity and fuzziness in risk evaluation,insufficient logical rigor in impact analysis,and a disconnect between risk assessment parameter systems and the parameter systems of the study objects.To address these problems,this study proposes a characteristic parameter-based risk assessment method,establishing a unified risk assessment framework and parameter system.Key features include:(1)replacing qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis of characteristic parameters instead of traditional direct severity classification;(2)Developing a relational model between the risk assessment parameter system and the study object’s parameter system,with mechanistic models as the core to establish rigorous logical links from the object’s characteristic parameters to risk assessment parameters.Through empirical validation with the first-stage landing zone risk analysis of a launch vehicle,this method not only provides a quantified overall risk evaluation but also specific risk impact levels on populated areas within the landing zone.This offers actionable insights for risk control measures,such as population relocation.
作者
李亚萍
张众
赵志杰
毛承元
刘雄
张文丰
LI Yaping;ZHANG Zhong;ZHAO Zhijie;MAO Chengyuan;LIU Xiong;ZHANG Wenfeng(Aerospace System Engineering Shanghai,Shanghai 201109,China)
出处
《航天技术与工程学报》
2025年第4期41-49,共9页
Journal of Space Technology and Engineering
关键词
风险评估
特征参数
统一模型
残骸落区
risk assessment
characteristic parameters
unified model
debris impact zone
