摘要
主要探讨了上海市排污量和排碳量的预测及结果分析。在排污量和排碳量预测方面,利用上海市2001~2003年GDP数据构建了ARIMA模型,确定了ARIMA(0,2,1)为最优模型,并利用最优模型对2024~2030年上海市GDP进行了预测。采用最小二乘法,分别得到了大气污染物排放总量与GDP之间以及二氧化碳排放量与GDP之间的拟合直线方程,并据此对2024~2030年上海市的污染物排放量和二氧化碳排放量进行了预测。结果表明上海市在大气污染治理方面成效显著,二氧化碳排放总量先升后稳并有略降趋势。预计到2030年,上海市大气污染物排放总量接近零,二氧化碳排放量将继续上升,但上升速度逐渐放缓。
This paper mainly discusses the prediction and analysis of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Shanghai.In the realm of predicting pollutant discharge and carbon emissions,an ARIMA model was constructed using Shanghai's GDP data from 2001 to 2003.The ARIMA(0,2,1)model was identified as the optimal one,and this optimal model was then utilized to forecast Shanghai′s GDP for the period from 2024 to 2030.The fitted linear equations between total air pollutant emissions and GDP and between carbon dioxide emissions and GDP were obtained by using the least squares method,and the pollutant emissions and carbon dioxide emissions in Shanghai from 2024 to 2030 were predicted.The results show that Shanghai has achieved remarkable results in air pollution control,and the total carbon dioxide emissions have increased first and then stabilized,with a slight downward trend.It is estimated that by 2030,Shanghai′s total air pollutant emissions will be close to zero,and carbon dioxide emissions will continue to rise,but the rate of increase will gradually slow down.
作者
黄阮明
王晓晖
莫晨昊
程倩
黄欣树
张业顺
孙波
HUANG Ruanming;WANG Xiaohui;MO Chenhao;CHENG Qian;HUANG Xinshu;ZHANG Yeshun;SUN Bo(Economic&Technological Institute,State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company,Shanghai 200000,China;School of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200000,China)
出处
《电工技术》
2025年第14期250-253,共4页
Electric Engineering
基金
国网上海市电力公司管理类研究项目“城市减污降碳协同视角下电力创新技术的发展模式研究”。
关键词
减污降碳
ARIMA模型
最小二乘法
GDP预测
协同发展
pollution and carbon reduction
ARIMA model
least squares
GDP forecasts
synergistic development
