摘要
在经济高质量发展的新时代背景下,创业活动是带动就业、稳定民生的重要手段,更是释放全社会创新潜能、推动经济结构转型的核心驱动力。文章以“省直管县”改革为准自然实验,基于2000—2013年全国县域工商企业注册数据,采用多期双重差分模型系统检验了“省直管县”改革对县域创业活力的影响及作用机制。文章研究发现,“省直管县”改革显著提升县域创业活力,平均促进效应为6.3%,该结论在多项稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,改革通过扩大地方政府财政支出规模而非放松税收征管力度激活创业活力。其中,民生性支出的边际效应比生产性支出更加明显。进一步分析表明,税收分成比例与转移支付作为两种财政治理方式存在差异化作用影响。税收分成比例通过强化财政激励来引导政府关注营商环境长期建设,转移支付因预算软约束加剧生产性支出偏向。异质性分析显示,改革的创业驱动效应在经济薄弱地区、市场化程度较低地区尤为显著,且对大型企业及非个体工商户的激励效果更为突出。文章构建“财政治理方式—地方政府行为—创业活力”理论框架,揭示税收分成激励与转移支付约束的双重路径,为优化省以下财政体制改革、协调转移支付与税收分成政策提供了微观证据,对通过制度性放权释放区域创业潜能具有政策启示。
As a vital component of the modernization of national governance systems,the fiscal system reform reshapes the entrepreneurial environment by redefining vertical fiscal relationships.However,existing literature predominantly focuses on the direct effect of policy instruments while overlooking the long-term institutional mechanism through which foundational fiscal arrangements affect entrepreneurial activities.Based on the nationwide county-level industrial and commercial enterprise registration data from 2000 to 2013,this paper employs China’s Province-Managing-County(PMC)reform as a quasi-natural experiment and adopts a multi-period DID model to systematically examine how the sub-provincial fiscal system reform affects entrepreneurial vitality at the county level.The results show that the PMC reform significantly enhances county-level entrepreneurial activities by 6.3%on average.Mechanism testing reveals that the reform stimulates entrepreneurship primarily through expanding local fiscal expenditure scale rather than relaxing tax enforcement.Further evidence shows that increased tax-sharing rates strengthen tax collection efforts via revenue-enhancing incentives,whereas expanded fiscal transfers weaken enforcement intensity through a substitution effect.Heterogeneity analysis highlights a stronger reform effect in economically underdeveloped regions and low-marketization regions.This paper has the following marginal contributions:First,it constructs a“fiscal governance–local government behavior–entrepreneurial vitality”theoretical framework to systematically decode the transmission mechanism of the sub-provincial fiscal system reform on entrepreneurial vitality,bridging the theoretical gap between the fiscal system reform and entrepreneurship environment research.Second,it elucidates the heterogenous impact of tax-sharing incentives versus fiscal transfer expansion,identifying the enhanced role of fiscal autonomy in optimizing welfare expenditure allocation to activate entrepreneurial vitality.Third,it pioneers the identification of structural heterogeneity in the entrepreneurial effect of the sub-provincial fiscal system reform,providing theoretical foundations for addressing regional disparities in entrepreneurial vitality and designing targeted reform strategies.
作者
周泽林
范翻
张聪
Zhou Zelin;Fan Fan;Zhang Cong(Research Institute of Finance and Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Center for China Fiscal Development,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China;School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)
出处
《财经研究》
北大核心
2025年第5期155-168,F0003,共15页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(20AZD041)。
关键词
“省直管县”改革
创业活力
转移支付
税收分成
民生性支出
Province-Managing-County reform
entrepreneurial vitality
fiscal transfers
tax sharing
welfare expenditures
