摘要
本文利用1980—2024年影响海南岛的356个热带气旋数据,耦合孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性三个方面因素建立评价体系,运用组合权重法构建海南岛台风灾害综合风险评估模型。结果表明:孕灾环境敏感性具有从东部、西南部沿海向内陆逐渐降低趋势,危险因子从东北部、西南部沿海向内陆递减,中高、高脆弱区主要分布在各市县经济中心,平均综合风险值和最大综合风险值分区等级在空间上均具有从沿海向内陆递减特征。并据此提出构建多维动态评估体系、优化热带农业空间布局、健全分层风险防控架构、推进设施农业技术革新以及完善农业系统应急管理体系等措施建议。
This paper utilizes the data of 356 tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Island from 1980 to 2024,establishes an evaluation system by coupling three aspects of factors:the sensitivity of disaster-causing environment,the risk of disaster-causing factors,and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies,and constructs a comprehensive risk assessment model for typhoon disasters in Hainan Island by using the combined weight method.The results show that the environmental sensitivity to pregnancy disasters has a gradually decreasing trend from the eastern and southwestern coasts to the inland,the risk factors decrease from the northeastern and southwestern coasts to the inland,the medium-high and high-vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in the economic centers of each city and county,and both the average comprehensive risk value and the maximum comprehensive risk value zoning grades have the characteristic of decreasing from the coast to the inland in space.Based on this,measures and suggestions such as constructing a multi-dimensional dynamic assessment system,optimizing the spatial layout of tropical agriculture,improving the hierarchical risk prevention and control framework,promoting technological innovation in facility agriculture,and perfecting the agricultural emergency management system are proposed.
作者
牟爽
姜维
Mu Shuang;Jiang Wei
出处
《中国应急管理科学》
2025年第7期108-119,共12页
Journal of China Emergency Management Science
关键词
台风灾害
农业脆弱性
应对策略
Typhoon Disaster
Agricultural Vulnerability
Response Strategy
