摘要
提出考虑堆石蠕变以及水力耦合效应的高面板坝系统可靠度分析方法。为获得面板坝多失效模式下的联合失效概率,采用全概率公式将面板坝系统失效概率表达为面板失效概率和面板失效后坝体渗透破坏条件概率的乘积。分别采用Duncan-chang E-B模型、Biot固结理论和改进的Merchant模型计算坝体的瞬时变形、固结变形和长期蠕变;考虑参数的不确定性以及堆石蠕变和库水位升降的时间效应,计算高面板坝的系统可靠度。将该方法应用于233 m高的水布垭面板堆石坝,结果表明固结变形在施工和初期蓄水阶段已完成,大坝在运行过程中产生的变形主要为蠕变变形;初期蓄水过程中,面板失效概率与面板失效后的坝体渗透破坏概率急剧增大,导致面板坝系统可靠度大幅度减小;运行过程中,蠕变变形增加引起面板和大坝系统可靠度缓慢下降,随着蠕变变形逐渐收敛,面板坝系统可靠度在缓慢下降后趋于稳定。
This paper proposes a method for the system reliability analysis of high concrete-faced rockfill dam(CFRD),considering creep effects and hydro-mechanical coupling.To obtain the joint failure probability of CFRD in multiple failure modes,the total probability formula is used to express the failure probability of the dam system as the product of the failure probability of the face slab and the conditional probability of seepage failure after slab failure.The instantaneous deformation,consolidation deformation,and long-term creep are calculated by the Duncan-chang E-B model,the Biot consolidation theory,and an improved Merchant model,respectively.Considering the uncertainty of the parameters and the time factors of rockfill creep and reservoir water level fluctuation,the system reliability of the dam is calculated.The method is applied to the 233 m high Shuibuya CFRD.The results show that the consolidation deformation is completed in the construction and initial storage stages,and the deformation produced during the operation of the dam is mainly creep deformation.During the initial storage,the slab failure probability and the seepage failure probability after the slab failure increase sharply,resulting in an obvious reduction in the reliability of the dam system.During operation,the increase in creep deformation leads to a gradual decrease in the reliability of the slab and the dam system.As the creep deformation gradually converges,the reliability of the dam system tends to be stable after a slow decline.
作者
杨鸽
何展国
甘龙厚
彭铭
孙蕊
曹子君
王永明
YANG Ge;HE Zhanguo;GAN Longhou;PENG Ming;SUN Rui;CAO Zijun;WANG Yongming(POWERCHINA Huadong Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 311122,China;College of Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Institute of Smart City and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;Zhejiang Huadong Construction and Management Co.,Ltd,Hangzhou 310030,China)
出处
《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第8期1218-1228,共11页
Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(42061160480,U23A2044,42071010)。
关键词
面板堆石坝
堆石蠕变
水力耦合
数值模拟
系统可靠度
concrete-faced rockfill dam(CFRD)
creep of rockfill
hydro-mechanical coupling
numerical simulation
system reliability
