摘要
基于《中国气象灾害年鉴》2004—2019的数据、北京大学开放研究数据平台的中国龙卷数据集2007—2016的数据、媒体报道的龙卷风个例以及有关我国龙卷风的研究文献,初步构建了我国2004—2019年的龙卷风数据库,包括龙卷风发生的时间、地点、强度等信息,并对其时空分布特性进行统计分析。随后基于构建的龙卷风数据库,采用蒙特卡洛法开展了10万年的龙卷风随机模拟,通过生成模型模拟了龙卷风的年频次和空间位置,通过路径模型模拟了龙卷风的强度等级、路径方向、长度和宽度等参数,通过风场模型模拟了龙卷风的风速分布,最终预测了江苏省各区、县的龙卷风极值风速。研究结果表明:江苏省各区、县的龙卷风极值风速分布呈现出东大西小、北大南小的特点;南京市主城区的龙卷风极值风速显著小于江苏省其余区域,而盐城市的射阳县、响水县的龙卷风极值风速显著大于江苏省其他区域。
Based on the Yearbook of Meteorological Disasters in China(2004—2019),the Tornado Dataset in China(2007—2016),the media reports on tornado cases,and the research papers on tornadoes,a preliminary database of tornadoes in China from 2004 to 2019 was established,including information on the time,location,and intensity of tornado cases,etc.,and their spatiotemporal distribution characteristics were statistically analyzed.Subsequently,a 100000-year stochastic simulation of tornadoes based on the tornado database was conducted using the Monte Carlo method.The annual frequency and spawn locations were simulated using the genesis model,the track parameters(such as intensity,direction,length,width,etc.)were simulated using the track model,and the wind speed variation was simulated using the wind speed model.Finally,the extreme wind speeds of tornadoes in various districts and counties in Jiangsu Province were predicted.The main results show that the distribution of tornado extreme wind speeds exhibits a pattern of higher values in the east and north,and lower values in the west and south.The tornado extreme wind speed in the downtown of Nanjing is significantly lower than that in other regions of Jiangsu Province,while that in Sheyang and Xiangshui Counties in Yancheng City is significantly higher compared to other regions in the province.
作者
赵恒浩
操金鑫
方根深
曹曙阳
ZHAO Henghao;CAO Jinxin;FANG Genshen;CAO Shuyang(College of Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)
出处
《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第8期1141-1151,1164,共12页
Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(52178502,51878504)
土木工程防灾减灾全国重点实验室自主课题(SLDRCE19-B-01)。
关键词
龙卷风
数据库
随机模拟
极值风速
tornado
database
stochastic simulation
extreme wind speed
