摘要
实施养老保险统筹是优化社会保障制度、增进人民福祉的重要举措。文章基于2010—2022年七轮中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用交叠双重差分法检验养老保险省级统筹对家庭消费决策的影响及机制。研究发现:省级统筹显著提升了家庭的生存型和发展型消费,但对享受型消费无显著影响,这主要受家庭收入水平的制约;从作用机制来看,省级统筹主要通过提高可支配收入、分担收入风险和增强消费信心,推动家庭消费扩容提质;此外,统筹政策释放了低收入和中老年家庭的基础性消费需求,同时促进了高收入和青年家庭高层次消费需求的增长。据此,应采取定向补贴、优化信贷资源配置及完善公共服务供给等举措,促进家庭消费结构升级。
The implementation of the pension insurance overall planning is a key measure to optimize the social security system and enhance the well-being of the people.Based on data from the seven rounds of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)conducted between 2010 and 2022,this article employs a staggered difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact and mechanism of provincial-level pension insurance overall planning on household consumption decisionmaking.Research shows that provincial-level overall planning significantly boosts both survival and developmental household consumption,but has no significant impact on enjoyment-oriented consumption,mainly due to household income constraints.From the perspective of mechanism,provincial-level overall planning promotes the expansion and improvement of household consumption primarily by increasing disposable income,sharing income risks,and enhancing consumer confidence.Additionally,the overall planning policy has unleashed basic consumption demands among low-income and middle-aged or elderly households,while promoting the growth of high-level consumption demands of high-income and young households.Accordingly,measures such as targeted subsidies,optimized allocation of credit resources,and improved public service provision should be implemented to promote the upgrading of household consumption structures.
作者
蒋长流
毕鹏飞
JIANG Changliu;BI Pengfei(Economics School,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
北大核心
2025年第8期83-93,共11页
East China Economic Management
基金
安徽省社科规划重点项目“安徽民营经济科技创新支持路径与政策精准化研究”(AHSKZ2020D17)。
关键词
养老保险
消费行为
扩大内需
社会福利
交叠双重差分
pension insurance
consumer behavior
expand domestic demand
social welfare
staggered difference-indifferences
