摘要
在乡村振兴和新型城镇化战略的影响下,人口流向正呈现新的变动趋势。以乡村振兴战略作为准自然实验,基于2010—2022年中国家庭追踪调查7期数据,运用双重差分模型和Multinomial Logit模型实证检验了乡村振兴战略的实施对农民工返乡的影响。研究发现:(1)乡村振兴对农民工返乡具有显著的促进作用,且随时间的推移而不断强化;(2)乡村振兴战略对户籍所在地城镇化水平较高、具有较高受教育程度的农民工返乡促进作用更为显著,而在乡村振兴战略实施初期,其对短距离务工的农民工以及高年龄组农民工返乡产生的影响更为突出。随着时间不断推移,乡村振兴战略在促使长距离务工农民工和低年龄组农民工返乡方面所起到的促进作用愈发显著;(3)作用机制分析表明,乡村振兴战略可以通过强化农民工对政府工作的认可度,增强其主体意识,改善城乡之间的信息互联互通情况,进而有效促进农民工返乡;(4)进一步分析发现,农民工返乡后的就业类型选择和工作地点选择存在明显的分化现象。为此,要完善农村地区基础设施建设,提高地方政府治理效能,以县域为重点统筹推进城乡融合发展,以进一步推动农民工返乡就业创业与乡村振兴的互动发展。
Under the influence of the rural revitalization and new urbanization strategies,the population flow is undergoing changes.Taking the rural revitalization policy as a quasi-natural experiment,and based on the seven waves of data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2010-2022,applying the difference-in-difference model and the Multinomial Logit model to empirically examine the impact of the rural revitalization policy on the return of migrant workers.The research findings are as follows:(1)The implementation of the rural revitalization policy has a significant promotion effect on the return of migrant workers,and this effect has been continuously increasing over time.(2)The heterogeneity analysis results show that,for those with household registration in provinces with higher urbanization levels and those with higher educational attainment,the promoting effect of rural revitalization on migrant workers'return is more significant at each stage of policy implementation.In the early stage of policy implementation,the effect is more significant for short-distance migrant workers and those in the older age group.As the rural revitalization policy progresses,the promoting effect becomes more significant for long-distance migrant workers and those in the younger age group.(3)In terms of the influencing mechanism,rural revitalization can promote the return of migrant workers by enhancing their recognition of government work and improving the information interconnection between urban and rural areas.(4)Further analysis reveals that there are obvious differentiation phenomena in the employment type and work location choices of returned migrant workers.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the infrastructure in rural areas,improve the governance effectiveness of local governments,and focus on county-level integration to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas,in order to further promote the interactive development of the return and employment of migrant workers and rural revitalization.
作者
杨胜利
王伟荣
刘金盼
YANG Sheng-li;WANG Wei-rong;LIU Jin-pan(School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 701000,China)
出处
《华南农业大学学报(社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第4期79-94,共16页
Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)
基金
河北省社会科学基金项目(HB21RK001)。
关键词
乡村振兴战略
返乡农民工
城乡融合
返乡创业
rural revitalization strategy
returning migrant workers
urban-rural integration
returning to start a business
