摘要
城际铁路作为城市群重要节点间以及都市圈重要组团间的快捷交通骨干,是多层次轨道交通一体化融合发展的核心层,近年来成为交通基础设施建设的重要板块。为进一步挖掘城际铁路综合效能以支撑城际铁路项目科学决策,在城际铁路规划建设及运营等过程中深度贯彻碳达峰、碳中和战略,将碳收益统筹纳入城际铁路经济费用效益测算中,基于全寿命周期视角,划分决策建设期、项目运营期、资产回收期3个阶段,融合灰色系统理论和粗糙集理论构建城际铁路经济效益测度指标体系;基于我国碳排放权交易市场启动交易以来近十年碳交易价格数据,采用深度学习模型对计算期碳交易价格进行预测;采用费用效益分析法覆盖项目全生命周期构建统筹双碳收益的城际铁路项目经济费用效益测算模型。最后以广佛江珠城际铁路为例进行实践验证及分析。结果表明,纳入双碳收益的城际铁路项目经济效益测算模型,其项目经济净现值、经济内部收益率分别较未纳入双碳收益时提高5.8%、4.0%,项目经济效益提升效果较为显著,可支撑深层次挖掘城际铁路项目节能减排收益,为促进城际铁路项目科学合理决策、可持续发展提供一定的参考和借鉴。
As transport backbones between important nodes in urban agglomerations and major clusters in metropolitan areas,and the core layer of integrated development in multi-level rail transit systems,intercity railways have become an important component of transportation infrastructure construction in recent years.To further enhance the comprehensive efficiency of intercity railways and support scientific decision-making for intercity railway projects,the carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategies were thoroughly implemented in the planning,construction,and operation processes of intercity railways,and carbon revenues were systematically integrated into the calculation of economic cost-benefit for intercity railways.From the perspective of whole life cycle,three stages were identified:decision-making and construction,project operation,and asset recovery.An indicator system for measuring economic benefits of intercity railways was established by integrating grey system theory and rough set theory.Based on nearly a decade of carbon trading price data since the launch of China's carbon emission trading market,the carbon trading prices during the calculation period were predicted using a deep learning model.A cost-benefit analysis method was used to establish an economic cost-benefit calculation model for intercity railway projects that incorporated dual-carbon benefits throughout the whole life cycle.Finally,the Guangzhou-Foshan-Jiangmen-Zhuhai intercity railway was taken as a case study for practical verification and analysis.The results showed that the economic benefit calculation model for intercity railway projects incorporating dual-carbon benefits showed 5.8%and 4.0%improvements in the project's economic net present value and economic internal rate of return,respectively,compared to models excluding dual-carbon benefits.The improvement in economic benefits is significant,enabling the in-depth exploration of energy-saving and emission-reduction benefits and providing references for promoting scientific decision-making and sustainable development of intercity railway projects.
作者
武远萍
金曲楠
俱博康
张倩
王兴仁
WU Yuanping;JIN Qunan;JU Bokang;ZHANG Qian;WANG Xingren(Shaanxi University Innovation Research Institute of the Future Industry in Rail Transit,Xi'an 710399,China;Sinotrans Logistics Northwest Co.,Ltd.,Xi'an 710026,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Xi'an Traffic Engineering Institute,Xi'an 710399,China)
出处
《铁道标准设计》
北大核心
2025年第7期18-23,30,共7页
Railway Standard Design
基金
陕西省高等教育科学研究项目(XGH21292)
西安交通工程学院青年基金项目(2022KY-14)。
关键词
城际铁路
双碳战略
全寿命周期
碳收益
经济效益
intercity railway
dual-carbon strategy
whole life cycle
carbon revenue
economic benefit
