摘要
京津冀地区大气污染防治具有现实紧迫性。该文基于2000-2022年高分辨率PM_(2.5)数据,采用Sen趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst指数、最优参数地理探测器模型和残差分析等方法,探究了京津冀季度PM_(2.5)浓度的时空异质性特征,厘清了气候与人类活动对其变化的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区PM_(2.5)浓度时空异质性显著。时间上,年际变化呈先上升后下降趋势(2014年达到峰值),冬季浓度显著高于其他季节,变化范围为42.85~88.44μg/m^(3)。空间上,冬季高值区集中分布于石家庄市、邢台市和邯郸市,夏季低值区分布于张家口市和承德市。(2)年度变化趋势以极显著减少区域为主(98.1%),四季占比均大于90%。未来变化趋势以改善变缓趋势为主(77.33%)。(3)OPGD模型结果表明,蒸散发量和气温是影响京津冀PM_(2.5)浓度变化的主导因子(q>0.91),气候条件对区域空气质量具有显著调控作用。各因子之间存在协同增强效应,高程与蒸散发量的交互作用最为显著(q=0.9607)。(4)残差分析结果表明,空气质量呈现显著改善趋势,PM_(2.5)浓度变化受气候与人类活动的共同影响,其中受气候因素主导的区域面积占比最大(35.26%)。该研究为推进京津冀地区大气污染防治工作提供了理论依据和数据支撑。
The prevention and control of air pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is of practical urgency.In an attempt to clarify the driving force of the climate changes and human activities,the spatial and temporal heterogeneity charac⁃teristics of quarterly PM_(2.5)concentrations in the Region were explored based on the high-resolution PM_(2.5)data of the period of 2000-2022 by using Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,Hurst index,optimal parameter geo-detector model and residual analysis.The exploring showed that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of PM_(2.5)concentrations in the Region was signifi⁃cant during this period,and temporally,the inter-annual variation tended to an increase at first and then declined(peaking in the year 2014),and PM_(2.5)concentration value in winter was significantly higher than that in other seasons,with a variation range of 42.85~88.44μg/m^(3);while spatially,the high-value area in winter was concentrated in the cities of Shijiazhuang,Xingtai and Handan,and the low-value areas were scattered in Zhangjiakou and Chengde cities in summer.As for the chang⁃ing trend of PM_(2.5)concentration,which in general at different time scales showed decreasing trend,and the very significant decrease area dominated(98.1%),which accounts for more than 90%in all seasons,and the future was dominated by im⁃provement slowing-down trend(77.33%).The OPGD modeling resulted in that evapo-transpiration and temperature are the dominant factors influencing the change of PM_(2.5)concentration in the Region(q>0.91),and climatic condition played a signif⁃icant role in regulating regional air quality;a kind of synergistic enhancement effect existed among the above factors,and the interaction between elevation and evapo-transpiration was the most significant(q=0.9607).The results of residual analysis showed that the trend of air quality improvement was notable,and the change of PM_(2.5)concentration was subject to the com⁃bined effect of climate change and human activities.The area dominated,among others,by climatic factor accounted for the biggest proportion(35.26%)of the Region.This study could provide theoretical basis and data support for the prevention and control of air pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.
作者
丁言蕊
史婧雨
于欣冉
庞博瑄
王敏丽
闫丰
庞娇
DING Yanrui;SHI Jingyu;YU Xinran;PANG Boxuan;WANG Minli;YAN Feng;PANG Jiao(Bohai College,Hebei Agricultural University,Changzhou 061100,China;School of Land Science and Technology,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;School of Land and Resources,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071001,China)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
北大核心
2025年第8期202-212,共11页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
河北农业大学大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(2025176)。
关键词
PM_(2.5)
时空异质性
最优参数地理探测器
残差分析
京津冀
PM_(2.5)
spatio-temporal heterogeneity
optimal parameter geographic detector(OPGD)
residual analysis
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
