摘要
提升碳排放风险管理质量是实现“双碳”目标的关键途径,交通运输业作为高耗能、高排放、高污染的行业之一,如何减碳增效已经成为交通运输高质量发展进程中亟待解决的重大问题。文章构建交通运输结构“减碳-增效-危机转化”多目标优化模型,采用NSGA-Ⅱ算法探究中国交通运输碳排放风险管理质量危机转化路径;并利用模糊均值聚类算法,结合31个省(市)的交通运输结构特征进行聚类分析,探索交通运输结构优化的碳减排异质性。研究发现,交通运输结构优化可以有效平衡“减碳-增效-危机转化”三个目标,在化解了交通运输碳排放风险的同时,提高了交通运输碳排放风险管理质量。进一步分析发现,地区交通运输结构优化和减碳效果存在异质性,其中内陆公路型具有较大的减排潜力。基于危机转化视角的研究丰富了交通运输碳排放风险管理质量理论,揭示了通过结构性调整来平衡减碳、增效、危机转化等多目标的协同优化路径,为不同区域制定差异化减排路径提供了理论支撑与决策范式。
Improving the quality of carbon risk management is a key way to achieve the“double carbon”objective,and the transport industry,as one of the high-energy-consuming,high-emission and high-pollution industries,has become a major problem to be solved in the process of high-quality development of transport.This paper constructs a multi-objective optimization model of carbon emission reduction,efficiency enhancement and crisis transformation for various modes of transport in terms of the quality of carbon emission risk management,and uses the NSGA-Ⅱalgorithm to explore the crisis transformation path of the quality of carbon emission risk management of China’s transport;and uses fuzzy mean clustering algorithm to explore the heterogeneity of carbon emission reduction in the optimization of transport structure by combining the characteristics of transport structure of 31 provinces for cluster analysis.We found that transport structure optimization can effectively balance the three objectives of“carbon reduction,efficiency enhancement and crisis transformation”,and improve the quality of transport carbon emission risk management while eliminating the risk of transport carbon emission.Further analysis reveals that there is heterogeneity in the optimization of regional transport structures and carbon reduction effects,with the inland highway type having a greater potential for emission reduction.The study based on the crisis transformation perspective enriches the theory of the quality of transport carbon emission risk management,reveals a synergistic optimization path that balances the objectives of carbon reduction,efficiency enhancement and crisis transformation through structural adjustment,and provides theoretical support and decision-making paradigm for different regions to formulate differentiated emission reduction paths.
作者
杨青
吴婵媛
刘星星
Yang Qing;Wu Chanyuan;Liu Xingxing(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology)
出处
《宏观质量研究》
2025年第4期76-89,共14页
Journal of Macro-quality Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72374164)的资助。
关键词
交通运输碳排放
减碳增效
危机转化
多目标优化
风险管理质量
carbon emissions from transport
crisis transformation
multi-objective optimization
carbon reduction and efficiency enhancement
risk management quality
