摘要
利用湖南长沙烟区4个国家气象站1961-2020年6-7月逐日最高气温资料,采用M-K检验、ROC曲线和核密度估计方法,分析长沙烟区烤烟成熟期高温热害特征,构建长沙烟区高温热害预报模型,以期为决策服务提供早期预警。结果表明:长沙烟区烤烟成熟期高温日平均每年15.2d,1961-2020年总体呈增加趋势,平均每10a增加1.0d,最早6月1日开始出现,80%保证率下平均始期在6月13日。长沙烟区烤烟成熟期高温热害过程平均每年发生0.9次,高温热害发生日最早出现日期为6月14日,7月1日之后高温热害发生日显著增多(P<0.05),80%保证率下平均始期为7月5日;高温热害以轻度等级为主,占整个成熟期的86.3%。长沙东部烟区烤烟成熟期高温日比西部烟区多3.9d,80%保证率下平均始期早于西部烟区7d;高温热害过程发生次数比西部烟区多0.3次,80%保证率下平均始期早于西部烟区5d。基于热积温构建的长沙烟区烤烟成熟期高温热害预报模型分类效果好,ROC曲线的AUC值为0.94,模型热积温预报阈值为4.6℃·d,模型预报准确率近90%,高温热害过程开始、结束时间以及影响范围的预报与实况一致,适用性好,可应用于烤烟高温灾害监测预警业务服务中,为防灾减灾提供技术支撑。高温热害概率预报模型是对阈值预报模型的有效补充。
Using the daily maximum temperature during June and July from 1961 to 2020 at four national meteorological stations in Changsha tobacco district of Hunan province,the characteristics of high temperature heat damage during the maturation period of tobacco in Changsha tobacco district were analyzed by using M-K test,ROC curve and kernel density estimation methods.High temperature heat damage forecast models in Changsha tobacco district were constructed to provide early warning for decision-making service.The results showed that:the average high temperature days were 15.2 days per year,with an overall increasing trend from 1961 to 2020,averaging an increase of 1.0 days per decade.High temperature days start as early as June 1,with an average start date of June 13 at the 80% guarantee rate.On average,heat-damaged processes occured 0.9 times per year.The earliest occurrence date of high temperature heat damage was June 14,and the occurrence dates of high temperature heat damage increased significantly after July 1(P<0.05).The average starting date for the 80% guarantee rate was July 5.The heat damage of high temperature was mainly mild,accounting for 86.3% of the entire mature period.The high temperature days during the ripening period of flue-cured tobacco in the eastern tobacco region of Changsha were 3.9 days longer than in the western tobacco region,and the average start date of the 80% guarantee rate was 7 days earlier than in the western tobacco region.The high temperature damage process occurred 0.3 times more often than in the western tobacco region,with the average start date of the 80% guarantee rate being 5 days earlier.The high temperature heat damage threshold model for Changsha tobacco district based on accumulated heat temperature had a good classification effect,with an AUC value of the ROC curve reaching 0.94.The classification threshold of model heat accumulation temperature was 4.6℃·d.The accuracy of predicting high temperature heat damage was close to 90%,and the start and end time of the prediction process,as well as the impact range,were consistent with the actual situation.The models were well-suited and could be applied to the monitoring and early warning services for flue-cured tobacco high temperature disasters,providing technical support for disaster prevention and mitigation.The probabilistic model of high temperature damage was established as an effective complement to the threshold model.
作者
张超
黄晚华
陈治锋
刘思华
陆魁东
ZHANG Chao;HUANG Wan-hua;CHEN Zhi-feng;LIU Si-hua;LU Kui-dong(Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction/Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Hunan Province,Changsha 410118,China;Changsha Branch of Hunan Provincial Tobacco Company,Changsha 410007)
出处
《中国农业气象》
2025年第8期1178-1191,共14页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
湖南省烟草公司长沙市公司科技项目(CS2022KJ04)
中国烟草总公司湖南省公司科技及标准项目(HN2023BZ02)。
关键词
高温日
高温热害
热积温
预报阈值
烤烟
High temperature day
High temperature heat damage
Accumulated heat temperature
Forecast threshold
Flue-cured tobacco
