摘要
目的:采用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测我国中医药科技期刊的核心总被引频次和核心影响因子,为中医药期刊的发展提供数据支撑。方法:基于2012—2023年我国中医药期刊的核心总被引频次和核心影响因子数据建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对2024—2026年我国中医类杂志的核心总被引频次和核心影响因子变化趋势进行预测分析。结果:2024—2026年各中医药期刊核心总被引频次的预测结果中医学为4500.36、4908.36、5353.35次,中医学大学学报为2275.82、2441.61、2619.47次,中西医结合医学为2211.78、2256.98、2303.10次,中药学为6042.15、6626.63、7267.66次,针灸及中医骨伤类为2200.15、2222.62、2245.31次;2024—2026年核心影响因子预测结果依次为1.44、1.63、1.83,中医学为1.44、1.63、1.83,中医学大学学报为1.50、1.69、1.90,中西医结合医学为1.01、1.06、1.11,中药学为1.76、1.98、2.23,针灸及中医骨伤类为1.43、1.51、1.59。结论:运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国中医药期刊的核心总被引频次和影响因子变化趋势进行预测分析可行,且预测精度等级好,预测值与实际值走势一致,模型拟合度较高,可为提升中医类期刊的质量和发展提供参考依据。
Objective:To predict core total citation frequency and core influencing factors of traditional Chinese medicine journals based on grey GM(1,1)model,so as to provide data support for the development of TCM journals.Methods:Based on the core total citation frequency and core influencing factor of TCM journals from 2012 to 2023,a GM(1,1)prediction model was established to predict and analyze the trend of core total citation frequency and core influencing factors of Chinese medicine journals from 2024 to 2026.Results:From 2024 to 2026,predicted total citation frequency of core Chinese medicine journals was 4500.36,4908.36 and 5353.35 times for TCM,2275.82,2441.61 and 2619.47 times for Journals of TCM University,2211.78,2256.98 and 2303.10 times for integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine,6042.15,6626.63,7267.66 times for materia medica,2200.15,2222.62 and 2245.31 times for acupuncture and moxibustion,and TCM bone trauma;and the prediction results of core influencing factors from 2024 to 2026 were 1.44,1.63 and 1.83,1.44,1.63 and 1.83 for TCM,1.50,1.69 and 1.90 for Journals of TCM University,1.01,1.06 and 1.11 for integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine,1.76,1.98 and 2.23 for materia medica,1.43,1.51 and 1.59 for acupuncture and moxibustion,and TCM bone trauma.Conclusion:It is feasible to use the grey GM(1,1)model to predict and analyze the changes in the core total citation frequency and influencing factors of traditional Chinese medicine journals in China with good prediction accuracy and high model fitting degree,and the trend of the forecast value is consistent with that of the actual value,providing reference for improving the quality and development of traditional Chinese medicine journals.
作者
王晓怀
寇嘉宁
张丽君
赵晓丽
王安萍
张治宽
WANG Xiaohuai;KOU Jianing;ZHANG Lijun;ZHAO Xiaoi;WANG Anping;ZHANG Zhikuan(Gansu Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou 730050,China;Gansu Provincial Academy of Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou 730050,China;Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China)
出处
《西部中医药》
2025年第7期61-66,共6页
Western Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine
