摘要
目的分析2020年内蒙古自治区肿瘤登记地区胃癌的流行现状及2015-2020年胃癌变化趋势,并对2021-2030年胃癌的发病和死亡情况进行预测。方法收集2020年内蒙古自治区38个肿瘤登记地区的数据,结合人口统计资料,分性别、城乡、年龄别计算胃癌发病和死亡指标,包括中国人口标化发病率(ASIRC)、中国人口标化死亡率(ASMRC)、世界人口标化发病率(ASIRW)、世界人口标化死亡率(ASMRW)、0~74岁累积发病率、年龄别发病和死亡率。选取2015-2020年9个肿瘤登记地区胃癌数据,采用Joinpoint 4.3.1.0进行趋势分析,并使用GM(1,1)模型预测未来10年胃癌的发病和死亡情况及一生患癌风险情况。结果2020年内蒙古自治区肿瘤登记地区胃癌粗发病率、ASIRC分别为21.18/10万和12.68/10万,粗死亡率和ASMRC分别为15.43/10万和9.28/10万。胃癌的发病和死亡率随年龄增长呈上升趋势,40岁及以上年龄组人群发病(死亡)率显著上升,男性和女性发病率分别在75~岁、80~岁年龄组达到高峰(196.27/10万和84.75/10万);死亡率分别在80~岁(211.14/10万)和85~岁年龄组(70.31/10万)达到高峰;农村地区粗发病率和ASIRC分别是城市地区的1.12和1.09倍,粗死亡率和ASMRC分别是城市地区的1.13和1.10倍。2015-2020年,内蒙古自治区肿瘤登记地区胃癌ASIRC(AAPC=-5.15%,P=0.004)和ASMRC(AAPC=-3.04%,P=0.133)均呈下降趋势。GM(1,1)预测模型结果显示,2021-2030年内蒙古自治区肿瘤登记地区胃癌ASIRC和ASMRC均呈下降趋势,预计在2030年分别下降至7.28/10万和6.62/10万;一生患癌风险也呈下降趋势,将下降为1.47%。结论内蒙古自治区肿瘤登记地区胃癌的发病率和死亡率均呈下降趋势,但发病和死亡仍处于较高水平,需根据不同人群特点制定防控策略,同时落实一级和二级预防措施,为内蒙古自治区胃癌的综合防控提供参考依据。
Objective To analyze the current prevalence of gastric cancer in the tumor registration areas of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in 2020and the trend of gastric cancer changes from 2015to 2020,and predict the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer from 2021to 2030.Methods The data of 38tumor registration areas in Inner Mongolia in 2020 were collected,and combined with demographic data,the incidence and death indicators of gastric cancer were calculated by gender,urban and rural areas,and age,including China's population standardized incidence rate(ASIRC),China's population standardized mortality(ASMRC),the world's population standardized incidence rate(ASIRW),the world's population standardized mortality(ASMRW),the cumulative incidence rate of 0-74years old,and age specific morbidity and mortality.Gastric cancer data from 9tumor registration areas from 2015to 2020were selected,by using Joinpoint 4.3.1.0for trend analysis,and using the GM(1,1)model to predict the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in the next 10years,as well as the lifetime risk of developing cancer.Results The 2020Inner Mongolia cancer registration data showed that the crude incidence rate of gastric cancer was 21.18/105,the ASIRC was 12.68/105,the crude mortality rate was 15.43/105,and the ASMRC was 9.28/105.The incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer showed an increasing trend with age,and the incidence and mortality rate of people in the age group of 40years and above increases significantly,with the incidence rate of males and females reaching apeak in the age groups of 75-years old and 80-years old(196.27/105 and 84.75/105),respectively;and the mortality rate reaching apeak in the age groups of 80-years old(211.14/105)and 85years old or above(70.31/105).The crude incidence rate and ASIRC in rural areas were 1.12and 1.09times that in urban areas,respectively,and the crude mortality rate and ASMRC in rural areas were 1.13and 1.10 times that in urban areas,respectively.From 2015to 2020,the ASIRC(AAPC=-5.15%,P=0.004)and the ASMRC(AAPC=-3.04%,P=0.133)of gastric cancer in the Inner Mongolia cancer registration area showed a decreasing trend.The results of the GM(1,1)prediction model showed that from 2021to 2030,the ASIRC and ASMRC of gastric cancer both showed a decreasing trend,and it was predicted that in 2030the ASIRC of gastric cancer would decrease to 7.28/105,the ASIRC would decrease to 6.62/105 and the lifetime cancer risk decrease to 1.47%.Conclusions Incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Inner Mongolia cancer registration areas are on a downward trend,but the incidence and mortality are still at a high level,so it is necessary to formulate preventive and control strategies according to the characteristics of different populations and implement primary and secondary prevention measures,so as to provide a reference basis for the comprehensive prevention and control of gastric cancer in Inner Mongolia.
作者
尹博
郝强
乔丽颖
那布其
邹佳哲
席云峰
YIN Bo;HAO Qiang;QIAO Liying;NA Buqi;ZOU Jiazhe;XI Yunfeng(School of Public Health,Baotou Medical College,Baotou,Inner Mongolia 014040,China;The Office of Inner Mongolia Ulat Middle Banner Disease Prevention and Control Center,Bayannur,Inner Mongolia 015300,China;Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control,Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010031,China)
出处
《中华肿瘤防治杂志》
北大核心
2025年第9期540-552,共13页
Chinese Journal of Cancer Prevention and Treatment
关键词
胃癌
发病率
死亡率
年龄
性别
内蒙古自治区
gastric cancer
incidence rate
mortality rate
age
gender
Inner Mongolia
