摘要
在天然气市场化改革持续深化的背景下,城镇燃气企业购气面临市场环境动态变化、供需格局多元化以及管理要求升级等多重挑战。基于改革对市场运行机制、采购决策环境以及管理要求升级的影响分析,系统识别出燃气企业购气环节存在的市场风险、合同履约风险、运营管理风险以及合规风险。市场化定价机制下供需波动与金融投机加剧价格不确定性,多元气源竞争与跨境贸易规则差异增加采购复杂性,供应链协同不足与预测偏差进一步放大运营风险。针对上述问题,提出构建“长期合同保供+现货采购调峰+期货工具对冲”的动态采购体系、强化合同全周期精细化管理、依托大数据提升需求预测能力以及推进数字化采购管理升级等应对策略,为燃气企业在市场化改革中优化采购风险管理提供理论参考与实践路径。
Against the backdrop of ongoing deepening market-oriented reforms of natural gas industry,urban gas companies face such multifaceted challenges in gas procurement as dynamic market environment shifts,diversification of supply and demand patterns,and heightened management requirements.Building upon an analysis of reform impacts on market operating mechanisms,procurement decision-making environments,and upgraded management imperatives,this paper systematically identifies the gas procurement risks confronting these companies including market risks,contract performance risks,operational management risks,and policy and compliance risks.Under the market-based pricing mechanism,supply-demand fluctuations compounded by financial speculation exacerbate price uncertainty.Diversified gas sources coupled with disparities in cross-border trade rules increase procurement complexity,while insufficient supply chain coordination and forecasting inaccuracies further amplify operational risks.To address these issues,it proposes such strategic interventions as establishing a dynamic procurement system integrating“long-term contract supply guarantee with spot procurement for peak shaving and futures tools for hedging”,strengthening comprehensive lifecycle contract fine management,leveraging big data analytics to enhance demand forecasting capabilities,and advancing the digital transformation of procurement management in order to provide theoretical support and practical approaches for natural gas companies seeking to optimize procurement risk management amidst market-oriented reforms.
作者
田磊
徐小峰
王一静
吴昀
杨悦
唐京茹
TIAN Lei;XU Xiaofeng;WANG Yijing;WU Yun;YANG Yue;TANG Jingru(Energy Research Institute,Academy of Macroeconomic Research;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China);Zhejiang Energy Natural Gas Group Co.,Ltd.)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2025年第7期46-52,91,共8页
International Petroleum Economics
基金
浙江能源天然气集团有限公司科技项目(ZNKJ-2022-052)。
关键词
天然气
市场化改革
城镇燃气
燃气企业
气源采购
风险识别
natural gas
market-oriented reforms
urban gas
gas companies
gas procurement
risk identification
