摘要
为响应“双碳”政策及新型电力系统建设需求,火电厂燃煤机组需提升灵活性以应对变负荷运行挑战,并且新能源受天气等因素制约呈现显著波动性。为平衡新能源波动,火电机组发电负荷的精准预测对电厂运行及电网安全至关重要。为此,本文提出基于TCN-CrossFormer的短期负荷预测模型,在传统历史数据基础上融合天气环境与厂内运行等多因素影响进行负荷预测。基于南方某火电厂两台机组历史数据的算例验证表明,TCN-CrossFormer模型预测精度更高、适应性更强,为火电厂发电计划制定与电网安全运行提供重要理论支撑。
In response to the‘dual-carbon’policy and the demand for new power system construction,coal-fired units in thermal power plants need to improve their flexibility to cope with the challenges of variable-load operation,and new energy sources are subject to significant fluctuations due to weather and other factors.Therefore,in order to balance the fluctuation of new energy sources,accurate forecasting of thermal power plant generation loads is crucial for power plant operation and grid security.Therefore,a short-term load forecasting model based on TCN-CrossFormer is proposed,which integrates the effects of weather environment and plant operation on the basis of traditional historical data for load forecasting.The example verification based on the historical data of two units in a thermal power plant in the south of China shows that the TCN-CrossFormer model has higher prediction accuracy and better adaptability,which provides an important theoretical support for the formulation of power generation plan and the safe operation of the power grid in thermal power plants.
作者
赵文静
茅大钧
ZHAO Wenjing;MAO Dajun(College of Automation Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)
出处
《能源工程》
2025年第4期26-32,共7页
Energy Engineering
基金
中国华能集团有限公司2022年度科技项目(HNKJ22-HF22)
上海市“科技创新行动计划”地方院校能建设专项项目(19020500700)。
