摘要
强对流天气具备复杂性和突发性特征,湍流作用会加剧大气污染物扩散预测难度,为此提出了雷暴强对流天气下大气污染物扩散风险精准预测方法。综合考虑大气污染物浓度、扩散范围等方面划分大气污染物扩散风险等级。模拟雷暴强对流天气场景后确定大气污染物的扩散规律,从而计算出大气污染物扩散风险值,将风险值与设定风险分级标准的比对得出大气污染物扩散风险等级精准预测结果。实验测试结果表明,所提方法的大气污染物扩散风险预测偏差较低,说明该方法具有更高的预测精度。
Due to the complexity and suddenness of severe convective weather,turbulence will aggravate the difficulty of atmospheric pollutant diffusion prediction.Therefore,an accurate prediction method of atmospheric pollutant diffusion risk under severe convective thunderstorm weather is proposed.Taking into account the concentration and diffusion range of atmospheric pollutants,the risk level of atmospheric pollutant diffusion is classified.After simulating thunderstorm and severe convective weather scenarios,the diffusion law of atmospheric pollutants is determined,and the diffusion risk value of atmospheric pollutants is calculated.The accurate prediction of the diffusion risk level of atmospheric pollutants is obtained by comparing the risk value with the set risk classification standards.The experimental test results show that the proposed method has a lower prediction bias for atmospheric pollutant diffusion risk,indicating that the method has higher prediction accuracy.
作者
任健
Ren Jian(Luoyang Meteorological Bureau,Luoyang 471000,China)
出处
《环境科学与管理》
2025年第8期189-194,共6页
Environmental Science and Management
关键词
雷暴天气
强对流天气
大气污染物
扩散风险预测
风险等级
thunderstorm weather
severe convective weather
atmospheric pollutant
prediction of diffusion risk
risk level
