摘要
[目的]黄顶菊是原产于南美洲的一年生恶性杂草,近年来在中国定殖后区域发展较快,现已向南扩散至河南省境内。为明确黄顶菊在河南省的潜在分布及动态变化,探究影响其扩散的主要环境因素,以控制其向南扩散态势。[方法]于河南省内开展黄顶菊实地踏查,使用获得的地理分布数据,并结合气候、地形、土壤、土地利用和人类活动等环境因素,运用Biomod2组合模型预测了黄顶菊在当前及未来气候变化条件下的潜在适生区域和对关键环境变量的响应。[结果]Biomod2组合模型较单一模型显著提高了预测的精度,当前黄顶菊在河南省内集中分布在豫北地区,限制其分布的关键环境因子依次是年均降水量、人类足迹指数、最暖月份最高温度、气温季节性变动系数。当前潜在发生面积约7.41×10^(4)km^(2),高适生性区域主要集中在安阳、濮阳、鹤壁、新乡、焦作等地。未来气候情景下,总发生面积连续增加,特别是在SSP370和SSP585情景下,黄顶菊的高适生性区域受人类活动影响显著,将以新乡地区为质心依靠人类活动持续向西南方向扩散。[结论]建议将郑州市这一全国交通枢纽作为遏制黄顶菊往西南方向扩散的关键防线,将有效阻遏黄顶菊在全省乃至全国的潜在扩散,为优化黄顶菊的防控资源配置,制定有效的防控策略提供科学依据。
[Objective]Flaveria bidentis,a native annual weed of South America,has recently been introduced to China and is rapidly expanding,with its range extending southward into Henan Province.To clarify the potential distribution and dynamic changes of the invasive plant Flaveria bidentis in Henan Province,and explore the main environmental factors affecting its spread in order to control its southward expansion.[Method]A field survey of the invasive plant Flaveria bidentis was conducted in Henan Province.Geographical distribution data were collected and integrated with environmental factors,including climate,topography,soil,land use,and human activities.The Biomod2 ensemble modeling platform was employed to predict the potential suitable habitats and assess the response of F.bidentis to key environmental variables,under both current and future climate change scenarios.[Result]The results showed that the Biomod2 ensemble model significantly improved the predictive accuracy compared to single models.Currently,F.bidentis is predominantly distributed in the northern part of Henan,with key environmental factors limiting its distribution being annual mean precipitation,human footprint index,the highest temperature of the warmest month,and temperature seasonality.The current potential affected area is approximately 74,100 square kilometers,and the highly suitable areas are mainly concentrated in Anyang,Puyang,Hebi,Xinxiang,and Jiaozuo.Under future climate scenarios,the total affected area is projected to continuously increase,especially under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios,where the highly suitable regions for Flaveria bidentis are significantly influenced by human activities,showing a southwestward diffusion pattern centered around the Xinxiang area.[Conclusion]Therefore,it is recommended that Zhengzhou,a national transportation hub,be established as a key defense line to curb the southwestward spread of Flaveria bidentis,effectively preventing its potential spread throughout the province and the country.This will provide a scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of resources for the control of Flaveria bidentis and formulating effective control strategies.
作者
朱秀红
刘宇凡
孙合祥
武晓宇
茹广欣
ZHU Xiu-hong;LIU Yu-fan;SUN He-xiang;WU Xiao-yu;RU Guang-xin(College of Forestry,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan,China;The International Education College of Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan,China)
出处
《林业科学研究》
北大核心
2025年第4期143-153,共11页
Forest Research
基金
外来入侵物种普查(30802498)
23年泡桐高质化利用技术研究及推广(30802824)。
关键词
Biomod2模型
生物入侵
黄顶菊
气候变化
潜在适生区
Biomod2 model
biological invasion
Flaveria bidentis
climate change
potential suitable areas
