摘要
文章以广西地区为研究对象,基于总成本理论与成本互补理论构建了工业物流全链条成本模型,通过PLS-SEM实证分析揭示了基础设施水平、集疏运体系效率、交通联动与智能化水平及管理服务质量对运输、仓储和信息化改造成本的直接影响与间接影响。实证结果表明,基础设施滞后和信息化改造不足是导致广西工业物流成本高企的主要驱动因素,各关键因素之间存在显著协同效应,其不平衡发展制约物流成本整体下降。为进一步增强区域物流网络优化的前瞻性决策支持,文章创新性地引入货运量预测模块,采用ARIMA模型结合多元回归分析,对未来广西公路、铁路及水路运输货运量进行定量预测。预测结果显示,尽管公路运输货运量呈现稳步增长趋势,但铁路和水路运输增速更为显著,反映出多式联运体系构建的重要性。该预测数据为物流资源合理配置和基础设施投资提供了量化依据,进一步验证物流成本优化与区域运输需求之间的内在联动机制。研究不仅从理论上构建涵盖运输、仓储及信息化改造等多个维度的工业物流成本模型,还通过货运量预测扩展了研究视角,为区域物流体系多式联运优化提供数据支撑与决策依据,为政府和企业制定降低物流成本、提升运营效率及实现区域经济高质量发展政策提供了切实可行的策略建议。
This paper constructs a comprehensive full-chain cost model for industrial logistics by integrating total cost theory and cost complementarity theory,aiming to thoroughly investigate the underlying mechanisms and key driving factors behind the elevated industrial logistics costs observed in Guangxi.Utilizing an extensive questionnaire survey conducted among logistics enterprises,combined with rigorous empirical analysis via partial least squares structural equation modeling(PLS-SEM),the research systematically examines how infrastructure level,efficiency of collection and distribution systems,transportation coordination,intelligent technological integration,and management service quality distinctly affect transportation costs,warehousing costs,and information technology transformation costs.Empirical findings demonstrate significant impacts from each identified factor on overall industrial logistics costs.Specifically,lagging infrastructure development,characterized by insufficient logistics hubs,inadequate road networks,outdated warehousing facilities,and limited intermodal transfer stations,emerges as a critical constraint substantially elevating logistical expenses.Furthermore,insufficient adoption and integration of advanced information technology solutions,including big data analytics,cloud computing,blockchain,and artificial intelligence,significantly hinder operational efficiency and increase transformation costs.Inefficient collection and distribution systems,exacerbated by fragmented logistics networks,poor coordination among logistics providers,and inadequate information sharing,further amplify cost burdens by increasing unnecessary transshipments,idle time,and operational redundancies.Moreover,suboptimal management service quality,manifested through inconsistent service standards,weak customer service capabilities,inadequate professional training,and limited performance management mechanisms,intensifies inefficiencies.These compounded issues highlight the necessity for systematic improvements to enhance management effectiveness and ensure higher service reliability.Additionally,inadequate transportation coordination,reflected in the underutilization of multimodal transport options and weak integration across transportation modes,further contributes to cost inefficiencies,exacerbating the overall logistics burden.Based on these analytical insights,the paper proposes targeted,actionable policy recommendations aimed at strategically addressing identified bottlenecks,significantly reducing industrial logistics costs,and consequently enhancing Guangxi s economic competitiveness.Recommendations prioritize increased investment in comprehensive logistics infrastructure improvements,including modern logistics parks,integrated warehousing facilities,and expanded road and railway networks.Accelerated deployment and comprehensive integration of intelligent logistics technologies,such as IoT-enabled tracking systems,AI-based optimization algorithms,and blockchain-driven transparent logistics platforms,are strongly advised.Furthermore,optimization of logistics management services through standardized operational practices,continuous workforce training programs,advanced performance management systems,and improved customer relationship management frameworks is recommended.Establishing an effectively coordinated multimodal transportation network,supported by integrated logistics information systems,streamlined administrative processes,and collaborative partnerships among stakeholders,is also proposed as a pivotal strategy to optimize resource allocation,significantly improve logistics efficiency,and bolster the overall economic sustainability and competitiveness of Guangxi s industrial logistics ecosystem.
作者
蒋菲
杨鹏
凌斯凡
JIANG Fei;YANG Peng;LING Si-fan(Research Institute of Industrial Economics,Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences,Nanning,Guangxi 530022)
出处
《供应链管理》
2025年第8期25-39,共15页
SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目“西南边疆农产品供应链韧性测度与安全水平提升路径研究”(23XJYO14)
广西哲学社会科学研究“党的二十届三中全会精神研究阐释专项”课题“提升广西优势产业核心竞争力研究”(24ESJSZQH02)。
关键词
工业物流成本
多式联运
PLS-SEM
ARIMA
货运量预测
降本增效
industrial logistics costs
multimodal transportation
PLS-SEM
ARIMA
freight dolume forecast,cost reduction and efficiency improvement
