摘要
进入新时代,我国食物供给能力不断增强、消费需求不断优化,为构建多元化食物供给体系提供了基础和动力,但仍面临自然资源多重约束、食物供需结构错配以及国际环境风险挑战,急需挖掘主要食物的可持续生产潜力,切实保障粮食安全和重要农产品稳产保供。运用中国农业产业模型(CASM)测算2030年和2035年主要食物增产潜力发现,从增量结构上看,粮食、蔬菜、水产品和奶类的增量较大;从增产潜力上看,油菜籽、糖、禽肉和奶类的增产潜力较大。未来需要以绿色生态为原则,以发展新质生产力为手段,调整农业产业结构,优化食物流通体系,转变居民膳食消费观念,健全食物供给体制机制,有效提高多元化食物供给体系的可持续性。同时,因地制宜优化食物供给结构和布局,构建多元化食物供给体系科技支撑平台,建立营养导向型消费体系,促进食物生产与贸易协调发展。
The enhancing supply capacity and upgrading demand structure of China’s food industry in the new era provide a pillar and driving force for building a diversified food supply system.However,it still faces multiple constraints of insufficient natural resources,mismatched food supply and demand,and international environmental changes.It is urgent to tap into the sustainable production potential of major foods to effectively ensure the food security and the stable production and supply of important agricultural products.The China Agricultural Sector Model(CASM)is adopted to calculate the potential for increased production of major foods in 2030 and 2035.In terms of incremental structure,the increments of grain,vegetables,aquatic products,and dairy products are large.From the perspective of increased production potential,rapeseed,sugar,poultry,and dairy products have greater potential of increased production.In the future,we need to take ecofriendly development as the principle and new quality productive forces as the means to adjust the agricultural industry structure,optimize the food circulation system,transform residents’dietary consumption concept,improve the food supply system and mechanism,and enhanced the sustainability of the diversified food supply system.At the same time,we need to optimize the structure and layout of food supply according to local conditions,build a technology support platform for a diversified food supply system,establish a nutrition-oriented consumption system,and promote the coordinated development of food production and trade.
作者
张琳
张瑞涛
杨艳涛
ZHANG Lin;ZHANG Ruitao;YANG Yantao(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;Institute of Rural Economy,Hebei Academy of Social Sciences,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050051)
出处
《经济纵横》
北大核心
2025年第7期54-64,F0002,共12页
Economic Review Journal
基金
中国农业科学院科技创新工程科学中心任务“新时代强农理论研究”(编号:CAAS-CSAERD-202401)
河北省社科基金项目“财政金融协同支持河北省新型农村集体经济发展路径研究”(编号:HB22YJ074)的成果。
关键词
大食物观
多元化食物供给体系
中国农业产业模型
消费结构升级
All-Encompassing Approach to Food
Diversified Food Supply System
China Agricultural Sector Model
Upgrading of Consumption Structure
