摘要
为了评估高分辨率模式间比较计划(HighResMIP)中的模式对青藏高原东坡暖季降水的模拟能力,本文选取了其中16个具有不同分辨率的模式,并结合CN05.1数据集,对青藏高原东坡暖季(5-9月)降水进行了全面评估。通过对比分析多个模式的输出结果与实际观测数据之间的差异,揭示了各模式在捕捉降水时空变化特征、降水强度以及与地形相关的降水机制等方面的优势和不足。研究发现,高分辨率气候模式在模拟青藏高原东坡全年及暖季降水空间分布方面表现出较高的准确性,但不同模式之间的模拟结果存在显著差异。部分模式(CMCC-CM2-HR4、CMCC-CM2-VHR4、FGOAL-f3-H)的年平均降水呈增长趋势,与观测结果一致,而其余模式则表现出稳定或减少趋势。此外,模式在降水频率和强度的模拟上仍存在明显不足。对比高分辨率组和中低分辨率组,所有模式均系统性低估弱降水事件(<1 mm∙d^(-1)),同时高估强降水事件(>4 mm∙d^(-1))发生频率。中低分辨率组模拟的青藏高原东坡降相位模拟相较观测结果存在约30天的系统性偏差。相比之下,高分辨率组在降水频率的模拟表现优于中低分辨率组。综合降水的时间分布、频率及模式评分,ECWMF模式的模拟效果较好,而FGOAL-f3-H模式存在显著的负偏差。
This study evaluates the simulation capabilities of 16 models with varying resolutions from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project(HighResMIP)in reproducing warm-season(May to September)precipitation over the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,using the CN05.1 dataset as observational reference.Through comparative analysis of outputs from multiple models against observational data,this study elucidates model strengths and limitations in capturing spatiotemporal variability,precipitation intensity,and terrainrelated mechanisms.Results indicate that high-resolution climate models demonstrate reasonable accuracy in simulating annual and warm-season precipitation spatial patterns,though notable inter-model discrepancies persist.Three models(CMCC-CM2-HR4,CMCC-CM2-VHR4,FGOAL-f3-H)successfully replicate the observed increasing trend in annual precipitation,while others exhibit stable or decreasing trends.Persistent model deficiencies emerge in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity:all models systematically underestimate light precipitation events(<1 mm∙d^(-1))while overestimating heavy precipitation frequency(>4 mm∙d^(-1)).Medium-to-lowresolution models show a systematic phase lag of approximately 30 days in diurnal precipitation cycles compared to observations.In contrast,the high-resolution models performed better in simulating precipitation frequency than the medium low resolution group.Based on comprehensive evaluation of temporal distribution,frequency characteristics,and model skill scores,the ECWMF model demonstrates superior performance,whereas the FGOAL-f3-H model exhibits significant negative biases.
作者
杨周
杨显玉
吕雅琼
孟宪红
文军
YANG Zhou;YANG Xianyu;LÜYaqiong;MENG Xianhong;WEN Jun(Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,Sichuan,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China)
出处
《高原气象》
北大核心
2025年第4期877-891,共15页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42475101)
中国科学院“西部之光-西部交叉团队”—“寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化研究”(xbzg-zdsys-202215)
甘肃省科技领军人才(24RCKB009)
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室开放研究基金项目(SZKT202303)。
关键词
青藏高原东坡
暖季降水
高分辨率模式
HighResMIP
模式评估
Eastern Slope of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
warm-season precipitation
high-resolution models
HighResMIP
model evaluation
