摘要
目的:探讨青少年特发性脊柱侧弯病人发生抑郁的危险因素,构建列线图预测模型并验证模型的预测效果。方法:选取2024年3月—8月某三级甲等医院收治的710例青少年特发性脊柱侧弯病人为研究对象,将其按3∶1比例分为建模组(532例)和验证组(178例)。根据病人有无产生抑郁将建模组病人分为抑郁和无抑郁两个组,通过Logistic回归分析发生抑郁的危险因素,建立预测模型,绘制列线图。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积、Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验评价模型的区分度和校准度。结果:建模组532例青少年特发性脊柱侧弯病人抑郁发生率为35.5%。最终筛选出6个变量并构建抑郁发生风险预测模型,该模型在建模组和验证组中的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.978和0.964,区分度良好。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示校准度较好。结论:构建的青少年脊柱侧弯病人抑郁发生风险预测模型可以较好地预测青少年特发性脊柱侧弯病人抑郁的发生,可为及时采取预防性干预措施提供参考。
Objective:To explore the risk factors for depression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.To construct Nomogram prediction model and to verify the predictive effect of the model.Methods:A total of 710 patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis admitted to a tertiary grade A hospital from March to August 2024 were selected as the research subjects,and divided into the modeling group(532 cases)and the validation group(178 cases)at a ratio of 3∶1.The patients in the modeling group were divided into two groups:those with depression and those without depression,based on whether they developed depression or not.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for depression,establish a predictive model,and draw a Nomogram.The discrimination and calibration of the model were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the Hosmer⁃Lemeshow goodness⁃of⁃fit test.Results:The incidence of depression in 532 adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients in the modeling group was 35.5%.Finally,six variables were screened out and a risk prediction model for depression was constructed.The areas under the ROC curves of this model in the modeling group and the validation group were 0.978 and 0.964 respectively,indicating good discrimination.The Hosmer⁃Lemeshow goodness⁃of⁃fit test showed good calibration.Conclusions:The constructed risk prediction model for depression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients could predict the occurrence of depression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients quite well.And it could provide reference for the timely adoption of preventive intervention measures.
作者
曾毅
李霞
唐志红
ZENG Yi;LI Xia;TANG Zhihong(West China Hospital of Sichuan University,Sichuan 610041 China)
出处
《护理研究》
北大核心
2025年第16期2745-2751,共7页
Chinese Nursing Research
关键词
脊柱侧弯
特发性
青少年
抑郁
影响因素
预测模型
idiopathic scoliosis
teenagers
depression
influencing factors
predictive model
