摘要
为分析燃气管道风险水平,识别泄漏重要风险源,预防和减少燃气管道事故的发生,结合燃气管道现场检验情况,提出基于贝叶斯网络和模糊综合评价法的燃气管道风险评估模型。首先,利用故障树模型分析燃气管道泄漏及衍生事故的相关因素。其次,依据故障树模型映射贝叶斯网络模型规则,引入模糊集理论和Noise-OR模型,建立燃气管道泄漏贝叶斯网络模型评估燃气管道泄漏概率,依据指标关键重要度结合模型反向推理功能识别燃气管道泄漏重要风险源。然后,采用模糊综合评价分析燃气管道泄漏风险后果级别,再综合风险概率确定燃气管道风险水平。最后,以某工业园区内单项燃气管道工程为例,验证模型的有效性,结果表明该模型能够较好地反映工程运行过程中存在的问题,为管道风险管控提供决策支持。
For purpose of analyzing gas pipelines’risk level,identifying the leakage’s source and reducing the occurrence of gas pipeline accidents,a gas pipeline risk assessment model based on Bayesian network and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was proposed through the inspection in-situ.Firstly,having the fault tree model adopted to analyze the related factors of gas pipeline leakage and derivative accidents;and then,having fault tree model based to map Bayesian network model rules,and having both fuzzy set theory and Noise-OR model introduced to establish a Bayesian network model for gas pipeline leakage so as to evaluate gas pipeline leakage probability and identify risk sources of the gas pipeline leakage according to key importance of indicators combined with the model's reverse reasoning function;finally,having the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation employed to analyze the leakage consequence,including having the comprehensive risk probability based to determine the risk level.Having a single gas pipeline in an industrial park taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the model shows that,the model proposed can better reflect the problems in the project operation and it provides decision support for pipeline risk control.
作者
潘李冬
郑建勇
古玉祺
周忠贺
许皆乐
夏立
PAN Li-dong;ZHENG Jian-yong;GU Yu-qi;ZHOU Zhong-he;XU Jie-le;XIA Li(Zhejiang Academy of Special Equipment Science;Key Laboratory of Special Equipment Safety Testing Technology of Zhejiang Province)
出处
《化工机械》
2025年第4期674-682,688,共10页
Chemical Engineering & Machinery
基金
浙江省科技计划(批准号:2022C03179)资助的课题。
关键词
燃气管道风险评估
贝叶斯网络
模糊综合评价法
关键致因
gas pipeline risk assessment
Bayesian network
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
key cause
