摘要
【目的】通过研究岩土参数的不确定性,对李儿河水库溢洪道边坡的稳定性进行分析。【方法】首先,采用强度折减法计算其稳定性系数;其次,基于可靠度理论,利用蒙特卡罗模拟分析开挖加固后的边坡可靠度;最后,通过Spearman系数对边坡稳定性系数对壤土力学参数的敏感性进行分析。【结果】结果表明,该边坡在工况A、工况B、工况C、工况D、工况E和工况F下的稳定性系数分别为1.465、1.320、0.854、0.727、1.270和1.152;在工况E和工况F下的破坏概率分别为0.5%和2.5%。【结论】该边坡在未开挖状态下处于稳定状态,在开挖未支护状态下处于不稳定状态,在支护状态下处于稳定状态,加固措施将开挖后的边坡在天然和暴雨工况下的稳定性系数分别提升了48.7%和58.5%;该边坡的失效概率处于可接受范围;在工况E和工况F下,该边坡的稳定性系数对于壤土力学参数的敏感性排序为:内摩擦角>泊松比>黏聚力>弹性模量。
[Purposes]To analyze the stability of the Lierhe Reservoir spillway slope by considering the uncertainty of geotechnical parameters.[Methods]First,the stability coefficient was calculated using the strength reduction method.Then,based on reliability theory,Monte Carlo simulation was employed to analyze the reliability of the slope after excavation and reinforcement.Finally,Spearman correlation co⁃efficient was used to evaluate the sensitivity of the slope stability coefficient to silty soil mechanical pa⁃rameters.[Findings]The results show that the stability coefficients under working conditions A,B,C,D,E,and F are 1.465,1.320,0.854,0.727,1.270,and 1.152,respectively.The failure probabilities un⁃der working conditions E and F are 0.5%and 2.5%,respectively.[Conclusions]The slope remains stable state in its natural state but becomes unstable after excavation without support.Reinforcement measures increase the stability coefficient by 48.7%under natural conditions and 58.5%under storm conditions after excavation.The failure probability falls within an acceptable range.For working conditions E and F,the sensitivity ranking of stability coefficient to silty soil parameters is:internal friction angle>Poisson′s ratio>cohesion>elastic modulus.
作者
赵明明
ZHAO Mingming(Ningxia Building Science Research Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Yinchuan 750021,China)
出处
《河南科技》
2025年第15期38-43,共6页
Henan Science and Technology
