摘要
基于数智技术的电网装备供应链感知响应能力提升已成为公司绿色现代数智供应链建设的重要课题。基于数字基础与智能化手段,构建了电网物资全寿命周期成本预测模型与全寿命周期成本无感伴生实现路径,提出了电网装备供应链多维效益感知及表达技术,建立了供应链风险成因识别与监测体系,可实现弱信号下输变电工程政策风险、供应商风险和建设风险的表征值测算,有助于制定策略规避电网供应链风险,提升供应链稳定性,从而进一步提高了内外部信息协同背景下公司对设备各阶段的信息反馈与优化响应能力。仿真结果表明,所提供应链成本-效益-风险数智化评估方法能够实现电网输变电工程全寿命周期成本精准预测,预测准确率达到90%以上;同时通过实时监测供应链综合效益,测算供应链各风险因素值,实现电网物资供应链数智能化管理。
The enhancement of the perception and response capabilities of the power grid equipment supply chain based on digital and intelligent technologies has become an important issue in the construction of the company's green modern digital and intelligent supply chain.This study,based on digital infrastructure and intelligent means,constructs a prediction model for the full life cycle cost of power grid materials and a seamless implementation path for the full life cycle cost management.It also proposes multidimensional benefit perception and expression technologies for the power grid equipment supply chain,and establishes a risk cause identification and monitoring system for the supply chain.This system can realize calculation of the representation values of policy risks,supplier risks,and construction risks in power transmission and transformation projects under weak signals,which helps to develop strategies to avoid supply chain risks,enhance supply chain stability,and further improve the SGCC’s information feedback and optimized response capabilities for equipment at various stages under the background of internal and external information collaboration.Simulation results show that the proposed digital assessment method of supply chain cost-benefit-risk can achieve precise prediction of the full life cycle cost of power grid transmission and transformation projects,with a prediction accuracy rate of over 90%.Concurrently,by real-time monitoring of the comprehensive benefits of the supply chain and calculating the values of various risk factors in the supply chain,it realizes the digital and intelligent management of the power grid material supply chain.
作者
李薇薇
辛诚
卢艳超
王硕
霍慧娟
王玉东
LI Weiwei;XIN Cheng;LU Yanchao;WANG Shuo;HUO Huijuan;WANG Yudong(State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China)
出处
《电网与清洁能源》
北大核心
2025年第7期71-82,93,共13页
Power System and Clean Energy
基金
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5108-202218280A-2-433-XG)。
关键词
电网装备供应链
数智化平台
全寿命周期成本
效益评估
风险监测
power grid equipment supply chain
data intelligence platform
life cycle cost
benefit evaluation
risk monitoring
