摘要
针对快速降水后土坝边坡稳定性进行评估与可靠性分析,旨在通过概率方法量化边坡稳定性在不确定条件下的表现。研究基于饱和-非饱和渗流理论,采用Richards方程描述渗流过程,并利用GeoStudio软件的SEEP/W和SLOPE/模块进行数值模拟。通过全因子实验设计,收集不同土壤参数组合下的安全系数数据,并利用响应面法(RSM)构建安全系数的近似模型。随后,采用蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)方法进行可靠性分析。分析表明,在研究的参数范围内,土壤黏聚力和内摩擦角对安全系数的影响最为显著。基于RSM构建的近似模型具有较高的准确性(R^(2)>0.9999),并据此提出设计公式,以确保土坝边坡在目标失效概率(≤1.33×10^(-5))下的稳定性。研究表明:提出的方法能够有效评估土坝边坡在快速降水条件下的稳定性,并为土坝设计提供了科学依据。
To evaluate and conduct reliability analysis on the stability of earth dam slopes after rapid water level drop,this study aims to quantify the performance of slope stability under uncertain conditions using probabilistic methods.Based on saturated-unsaturated seepage theory,the study employs the Richards equation to describe the seepage process and conducts numerical simulations using the SEEP/W and SLOPE/W modules of GeoStudio software.Through full factorial experimental design,safety factor data under different soil parameter combinations are collected,and a response surface methodology(RSM)is used to construct an approximate model of the safety factor.Subsequently,the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)method is applied for reliability analysis.The analysis shows that within the studied parameter range,soil cohesion and internal friction angle have the most significant impact on the safety factor.The approximate model constructed based on RSM exhibits high accuracy(R^(2)>0.9999),and a design formula is proposed accordingly to ensure the stability of earth dam slopes under the target failure probability(≤1.33×10^(-5)).The research indicates that the proposed method can effectively evaluate the stability of earth dam slopes under rapid water level drop conditions and provides a scientific basis for earth dam design.
作者
龚畅
马悦
程硕
GONG Chang;MA Yue;CHENG Shuo(Jiangsu Water Conservancy Science and Education Center,Nanjing 210029,China;Luoyun Hydraulic Project Management Division of Jiangsu Province,Suqian 223800,China)
出处
《江苏水利》
2025年第8期68-72,共5页
Jiangsu Water Resources
关键词
土坝
边坡稳定性
快速降水
可靠性分析
渗流模拟
earth dam
slope stability
rapid water level drop
reliability analysis
seepage simulation
