摘要
以苏北地区“水资源-社会经济-生态环境”复合系统为研究对象,通过构建评价指标体系,结合模糊层次分析法与熵权法确定指标权重,利用耦合协调度模型对2013—2022年间苏北8市的多系统耦合协调发展规律进行解析。研究结果表明:近年来水资源短缺对苏北地区发展的约束效应凸显;区域复合系统综合评价指数和耦合协调度的上升特征证明总体往好的方向发展,但区域整体仍有较大的上升空间;空间分布形成“鞍型”格局。该研究为揭示区域系统协调发展机制提供了实证参考,验证了“以水定城”策略在区域可持续发展中的科学价值,为区域水资源管理提供理论依据和科学支撑。
Taking the“water resources-socioeconomic-ecological environment”composite system in northern Jiangsu as the research object,this study constructs an evaluation index system,combines fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method to determine the index weights,and uses a coupling coordination degree model to analyze the multi system coupling and coordinated development laws of eight cities in northern Jiangsu from 2013 to 2022.The research results show that:in recent years,the constraining effect of water resource shortages on the development of northern Jiangsu has become prominent;the rising characteristics of the comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree of the regional composite system prove that the overall development is moving in a positive direction,but there is still significant room for improvement in the region as a whole;the spatial distribution has formed a“saddle shaped”pattern.This study provides empirical reference for revealing the coordinated development mechanism of regional systems,verifies the scientific value of the“water determines the city”strategy in regional sustainable development,and provides theoretical basis and scientific support for regional water resource management.
作者
刘雨桐
郑子沁
周强
陈霞
闫怀春
杨璐宇
LIU Yutong;ZHENG Ziqin;ZHOU Qiang;CHEN Xia;YAN Huaichun;YANG Luyu(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;Jiangsu Water Conservancy Digital Center,Nanjing 210012,China)
出处
《江苏水利》
2025年第8期43-48,共6页
Jiangsu Water Resources
基金
江苏省水利科技项目(2023027)。
关键词
水资源
社会经济
生态环境
耦合协调
苏北地区
water resources
socioeconomic
ecological environment
coupling coordination
northern Jiangsu
