摘要
黑龙江省“分钟级、百米级”睿思预报系统能够提供0~24 h最优集成的高分辨率客观预报产品,可以做到最快逐10 min起报。在亚冬会赛事结束后,可以根据气象服务需求搭建新的100 m分辨率预报系统。在亚冬会赛事期间,气温、风速、相对湿度的分析场误差均较小,临近预报时效内的气温、相对湿度、风场预报均有较高的准确率,哈尔滨赛区的预报效果优于亚布力赛区的预报效果。由于亚冬会赛事期间降水过程弱,两赛区的晴雨预报准确率均较高,未来还需继续进行更多降水个例的详细分析。
The‘minute-level and hectometer-level’RISE Forecast System in Heilongjiang Province is capable of providing optimal integrated high-resolution objective forecast products with a time range of 0~24 hours,enabling forecast updates starting as frequently as every 10 minutes.After the Asian Winter Games,a new 100-meter resolution forecasting system can be developed to meet specific meteorological service requirements.During the Asian Winter Games,the analysis field errors of RISE for temperature,wind speed,and relative humidity remained relatively small.Within the nowcasting validity period,the forecasts for temperature,relative humidity,and wind field also demonstrated high accuracy rates,with the Harbin competition zone exhibiting superior forecast performance compared to the Yabuli zone.Due to the weak precipitation events during the Asian Winter Games,both competition zones achieved relatively high accuracy rates in sunny-rainy forecasts.In the future,there remains a need to conduct more detailed analyses of additional precipitation cases.
作者
白雪梅
孟莹莹
李有缘
卜文惠
王一达
BAI Xue-mei;MENG Ying-ying;LI You-yuan;BU Wen-hui;WANG Yi-da(Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory,Heilongjiang Harbin 150030;Harbin Meteorological Observatory,Heilongjiang Harbin 150028)
出处
《黑龙江气象》
2025年第2期1-4,共4页
Heilongjiang Meteorology
关键词
分钟级百米级预报
黑龙江
检验评估
The‘minute-level and hectometer-level’Forecast
Heilongjiang province
Inspection and evaluation
