摘要
为评估基于雨滴谱观测的本地化关系式对双偏振雷达定量降水估测(QPE)的影响,本文以2024年5月18—19日广西沿海地区一次极端降水过程为例,基于相关系数、相对偏差、均方根误差、分数标准误差、命中率、误报率和临界成功指数七种评估指标,对传统Z-R关系法与基于本地化关系式的CSU-HIDRO算法的雷达QPE效果进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)传统Z-R关系法在降水空间分布刻画方面存在较大的局限。CSU-HIDRO算法在反映降水空间格局方面表现优异,尤其在降水中心识别上更具优势。(2)CSU-HIDRO算法在降水估测精度、时序变化一致性及雨强概率分布等方面均优于Z-R关系法。总体而言,本地化关系式的引入可显著提升双偏振雷达在复杂条件下的降水估测能力。
To evaluate the impact of localized relationships derived from raindrop size distribution observations on quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)by dual-polarization radar,this study examines an extreme rainfall event in the coastal region of Guangxi from May 18 to 19,2024.Seven evaluation metrics—including correlation coefficient,relative deviation,root mean square error,fractional standard error,hit rate,false alarm rate,and critical success index—are used to compare the performance of the traditional Z-R method with that of the CSU-HIDRO(Colorado State University‒Hydrometeor Identification Rainfall Optimization)algorithm incorporating localized relationships.The results show that:(1)the Z-R method exhibits significant limitations in capturing the spatial distribution of precipitation,while the CSU-HIDRO algorithm exhibits excellent performance in reflecting spatial patterns,particularly in identifying rainfall centers.(2)the CSU-HIDRO algorithm outperforms the Z-R method in terms of estimation accuracy,temporal consistency,and rainfall intensity distribution.Overall,incorporating localized relationships based on raindrop size distribution observations significantly enhances the QPE capability of dual-polarization radar under complex precipitation conditions.
作者
邓家丰
陈生
李峙
汪冬冬
李艳萍
韦春霞
王冠添
黄剑钊
DENG Jiafeng;CHEN Sheng;LI Zhi;WANG Dongdong;LI Yanping;WEI Chunxia;WANG Guantian;HUANG Jianzhao(School of Geography and Planning,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,China;Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf,Ministry of Education,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;Ningbo Meteorological Service Center,Zhejiang Ningbo 315000,China;Guangxi Meteorological Information Center,Nanning 530022,China;Guangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanning 530022,China;Guangxi Meteorological Technology and Equipment Center,Nanning 530022,China)
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2025年第2期76-86,共11页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
基金
广西重点研发计划项目(AB22080104,AB22035016)
甘肃省自然科学基金项目(24JRRA082)
柳州市元宝山地形暴雨重点实验室重点项目(2024ybssysz2)
中国科学院高层次人才计划项目(E2290702)
浙江省自然科学基金联合基金资助项目(LZJMY25D050008)
宁波市公益性研究计划项目(2023S065)。
关键词
双偏振雷达
降水
定量估测
CSU-HIDRO算法
雨滴谱
dual-polarization radar
precipitation
quantitative estimation
CSU-HIDRO algorithm
raindrop size distribution
