摘要
本文梳理主权货币国际化的历史经验,系统探究汇率稳定性对主权货币国际化进程的动态影响机制,并提炼关于推进人民币国际化的关键启示。本文从国际经验的共性特征入手,基于八个主要国际货币2012年1月至2023年12月的面板数据和时间序列数据,使用局部投影法考察不同货币汇率升值和汇率波动对其货币国际化的动态影响。研究发现:(1)汇率升值总体上有利于提升国际支付份额,但对美元和欧元这类国际化程度较高的货币作用有限。汇率波动对国际支付份额具有负向制约作用。(2)人民币国际支付份额同时受到汇率升值的正向影响及汇率波动的负向影响,汇率波动上显现出“影响程度大、持续时间长”的特点。
This paper reviews the historical experience of sovereign currency internationalization,systemati⁃cally explores the dynamic impact mechanism of exchange rate stability on the process of sovereign currency inter⁃nationalization,and extracts key insights for promoting the internationalization of the RMB.Starting from the com⁃mon characteristics of international experience,this paper uses panel data and time series data from January 2012 to December 2023 for eight major international currencies.It employs the local projection method to examine the dynamic impact of currency appreciation and exchange rate volatility on the internationalization of these curren⁃cies.Research finds that:(1)Exchange rate appreciation generally helps to increase the share of international pay⁃ments,but has limited effect on highly internationalized currencies such as the US dollar and the Euro.Exchange rate fluctuations have a negative impact on the share of international payments.(2)The share of international pay⁃ments in RMB is positively affected by exchange rate appreciation and negatively affected by exchange rate fluctu⁃ations,with exchange rate fluctuations exhibiting the characteristics of"significant impact and long duration".
作者
徐子桐
何颖
陈文武
Xu Zitong;He Ying;Chen Wenwu
出处
《西南金融》
北大核心
2025年第7期16-24,共9页
Southwest Finance
关键词
人民币国际化
货币国际化
汇率稳定
汇率波动
货币政策
国际贸易
国际货币体系
金融强国
Internationalization of the RMB
internationalization of currency
exchange rate stability
ex⁃change rate fluctuations
monetary policy
international trade
international monetary system
financial powerhouse
