摘要
目的:评价、预测江西省中医药卫生资源配置及利用效率,为促进江西省中医药事业高质量发展提供依据。方法:通过描述性统计分析法、三阶段DEA模型评估江西省中医药卫生资源配置及利用效率现状,并运用灰色预测模型分析江西省未来中医药资源发展趋势。结果:描述性统计表明,2012-2021年江西省中医类医疗卫生机构数、中医类医疗机构床位数、中医药人员数均呈现稳步增长趋势,年平均增长率分别为4.84%、9.40%、5.57%,且中医类医疗机构诊疗人次、中医类出院人次数呈现波动增长趋势,年平均增长率分别为5.98%、6.68%。三阶段DEA模型分析发现,2021年江西省中医药卫生资源配置及利用效率的综合效率均值为0.99,纯技术效率为0.992,规模效率为0.998;在调整环境因素后,第三阶段DEA分析的综合效率均值提升至0.996,纯技术效率均值提升至0.997。灰色预测模型预测结果显示,2022-2030年江西省中医药卫生资源配置及利用效率的各项相关指标均将稳步增长,综合效率将更加稳定。结论:江西省中医药卫生资源配置及利用效率整体较好,但仍需进一步提高。随着人口结构变化及社会经济发展,江西省可通过加强跨学科合作、关注特殊人群需求、推动中医药创新发展等措施,进一步促进江西省中医药事业发展。
Objective:To evaluate and predict the allocation and utilization efficiency of traditional Chinese medicine and health resources in Jiangxi Province,so as to provide a basis for promoting the further development of traditional Chinese medicine in Jiangxi Province.Methods:The descriptive statistical analysis method and the three-stage DEA model were used to evaluate the current situation of TCM health resource allocation and utilization efficiency in Jiangxi Province,and the grey prediction model was used to analyze the future development trend of TCM resources in Jiangxi Province.Results:Descriptive statistics show that from 2012 to 2021,the number of TCM medical and health institutions,the number of beds in TCM medical institutions,and the number of TCM personnel in Jiangxi Province all showed a steady growth trend,with an average annual growth rate of 4.84%,9.40%,and 5.57%,respectively,and the number of diagnosis and treatment of TCM medical institutions and the number of TCM dischargers also showed a fluctuating growth trend,with an average annual growth rate of 5.98%and 6.68%,respectively.The three-stage DEA model analysis found that in 2021,the average comprehensive efficiency of TCM health resource allocation and utilization efficiency in Jiangxi Province was 0.99,the pure technical efficiency was 0.992,and the scale efficiency was 0.998,and after adjusting for environmental factors,the average comprehensive efficiency of the third-stage DEA analysis increased to 0.996,and the average pure technical efficiency increased to 0.997.The prediction results of the gray prediction model show that from 2022 to 2030,all relevant indicators of the allocation and utilization efficiency of traditional Chinese medicine and health resources in Jiangxi Province will grow steadily,and the comprehensive efficiency will be more stable.Conclusion:The allocation and utilization efficiency of traditional Chinese medicine and health resources in Jiangxi Province are generally good,but they still need to be further improved.With the change of population structure and social and economic development,Jiangxi Province can further promote the development of traditional Chinese medicine in Jiangxi Province by strengthening interdisciplinary cooperation,paying attention to the needs of special populations,and promoting the innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine.
作者
姜凤
张珉
陈永成
刘玉玲
陈翠珠
Jiang Feng;Zhang Min;Chen Yongcheng;Liu Yuling;Chen Cuizhu(Faculty of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine,Nanchang 330004,China)
出处
《亚太传统医药》
2025年第7期5-11,共7页
Asia-Pacific Traditional Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金(81960616)
江西中医药大学博士科研启动基金课题(2018WBRW004)
江西中医药大学研究生科研创新训练计划项目(2024jzzdxkx033)
江西省科学教育学会在校研究生课题(2023KXJYS009)
江西中医药大学“大学生创新创业训练计划”项目(202410412254)
江西省研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2024-S723)。
关键词
江西省
中医药卫生资源
三阶段DEA模型
灰色预测模型
资源配置
利用效率
Jiangxi Province
Health Resources of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Three-Stage DEA Model
Grey Prediction Model
Resource Allocation
Utilization Efficiency
