摘要
目的通过移动流行区间法(moving epidemic method,MEM)制定甘肃省流感流行阈值和强度阈值,评价预警阈值应用效果。方法以2015年第31周至2023年第30周共8个流行季节甘肃省流感监测的病毒阳性率为基线建模,计算甘肃省流感流行阈值和强度分级标准,并以此对甘肃省2023年第31周至2024年第30周流感流行情况进行评估。结果参数δ取值为2.0%时建立的模型效果最优,得出甘肃省流感流行阈值(流感病毒阳性率)为10.77%,中流行强度阈值为45.66%,高流行强度阈值为59.59%,超高流行强度阈值为72.43%。对2023/2024年度甘肃省流感流行进行预警,2023年第45周开始进入流行期,第48周至第51周持续处于中等流行水平,预警阈值的灵敏度为100.00%,特异度为94.59%,约登指数为94.59%。结论移动流行区间法对甘肃省流感单峰流行的预警效果较好,可用于流感流行预警和强度分级评估,为甘肃省流感防控工作提供科学依据。
Objective To determine epidemic threshold and intensity threshold value of influenza by the moving epidemic method(MEM)in Gansu province,and evaluate the effect of applying the epidemic warning threshold.MethodsFor the eight influenza seasons,from the 31^(st)week in 2015 to the 30 th week in 2023,the weekly positive rates of influenza virus were taken as the baseline to construct the model and calculate the epidemic threshold and intensity classification threshold of influenza in Gansu province.Based on the calculation result,the epidemic situation of influenza during the period from the 31 st week in 2023 to the 30 th week in 2024 was evaluated.ResultsThe model was optimized when the parameterδwas set to 2.0%.The epidemic threshold value of influenza in Gansu(the positive rate of influenza virus)was 10.77%.The thresholds for medium,high and very high epidemic intensity were 45.66%,59.59%and 72.43%,respectively.For the warning of influenza epidemics in Gansu in 2023/2024 season,the epidemic period started from the 45 th week of 2023 and maintained medium epidemic level from the 48 th week to the 51 st week.The sensitivity of the warning threshold value was 100.00%,the specificity was 94.59%,and the Youden’s index was 94.59%.ConclusionsThe warning result of moving epidemic method on the single-peak epidemic of influenza in Gansu was good.The method can be used for influenza epidemic warning and intensity grading,thus could provide a scientific basis for influenza prevention and control in Gansu province.
作者
杨筱婷
苟发香
王龙
成瑶
寇嘉宁
张晓曙
Yang Xiaoting;Gou Faxiang;Wang Long;Cheng Yao;Kou Jianing;Zhang Xiaoshu(Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Division,Gansu provincial center for disease control and prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China;Communicable Disease Surveillance and Early Warning Division,Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institute of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)
出处
《国际病毒学杂志》
北大核心
2025年第3期228-233,共6页
International Journal of Virology
基金
甘肃省卫生健康行业科研管理项目(GSWSKY2022-57)
甘肃省科技计划项目重点研发计划(23YFFA0051)。
关键词
流感
移动流行区间法
预警
阈值
流行强度
Influenza
Moving epidemic method
Warning
Threshold
Epidemic intensity
